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Will China obtains or develops a functional extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine that is capable of patterning semiconductor wafers in a fabrication facility be confirmed before Jan 1, 2030?

Yes 68.5%

Vol86.36 contracts

SnapshotOct 20, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC

Yes 68.5%

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Event

MarketKALSHIactive

MarketKALSHIactiveTech

Will China obtains or develops a functional extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine that is capable of patterning semiconductor wafers in a fabrication facility be confirmed before Jan 1, 2030?

Part of: Will China obtain an EUV machine?

YesYes Price

68.5¢

VolTotal Volume

86.36 contracts

Outcomes

Ends

Jan 8, 2030, 3:00 PM UTC

Trade on Kalshi

Will China obtains or develops a functional extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine that is capable of patterning semiconductor wafers in a fabrication facility be confirmed before Jan 1, 2030?

Yes

68.5¢

Vol

86.36 contracts

Outcomes

Trade

Yes68.5¢

No31.5¢

Outcome

Yes quoted price: 68.5%. Snapshot Oct 20, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC. History may have a different observation time.

Price History

Will China obtains or develops a functional extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine that is capable of patterning semiconductor wafers in a fabrication facility be confirmed before Jan 1, 2030? · Yes

No historical data available

Price history will appear here when available

Rules and settlement

Listed close: Jan 8, 2030, 3:00 PM UTC. Settlement follows the provider's contract terms and may occur later.

If China obtains or develops a functional extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine that is capable of patterning semiconductor wafers in a fabrication facility is confirmed by any of the Source Agencies after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This must be confirmed, verified, or established as factual by at least one Source Agency. News confirmation is defined as a published article, broadcast segment, or official news report by a Source Agency, that A) explicitly states event claim occurred, is true, or has been verified, B) based on journalistic investigation, sources, or evidence, and C) presented as factual reporting rather than speculation, rumor, or unverified allegation. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

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Resolution Info