Will Danielle Smith announce her departure as UCP leader before Jan 1, 2028?
If Danielle Smith of the United Conservative Party has resigned or otherwise left their position as leader of their party, or announced that they will do so before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves to Yes if the party leader resigns, is removed, or announces they will resign from party leadership. An announcement that the leader will leave within the next year counts even before it takes effect. This includes voluntary resignation, losing a leadership election, being ousted by the party, or any other mechanism that ends their party leadership. A leadership review or special general meeting vote does not by itself resolve the market; it counts only if the leader then resigns, is removed, or it is announced that they will leave. Temporarily stepping aside or taking leave while remaining leader does not qualify. The market is about party leadership positions, not government positions - a leader can resign from government while remaining party leader or vice versa. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the leader resigns or announces resignation.
