Will a Moody’s, S&P, or Fitch downgrade of France’s credit rating be confirmed before 2027?
If a downgrade by Moody’s, S&P, or Fitch, of France’s long-term foreign-currency sovereign issuer rating is confirmed by any of the Source Agencies after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A qualifying downgrade is a reduction of at least one notch in France’s long-term foreign-currency issuer rating (Moody’s), sovereign credit rating (S&P), or Issuer Default Rating (Fitch), relative to that agency’s immediately preceding rating. Both the downgrade announcement and confirmation by at least one of the Source Agencies must occur during the market period. Scheduled and unscheduled downgrades count; a subsequent upgrade does not negate a downgrade. Outlook changes, watch/review placements, withdrawals, and changes solely to short-term or individual debt-instrument ratings do not count. Ratings of entities other than the Republic of France are excluded. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.