Will the number of Republican U.S. House members elected from the 201 districts that Kamala Harris carried in 2024 be at least 1 at the November 3, 2026 general election?
If the number of Republican U.S. House members elected from the 201 districts that Kamala Harris carried in 2024 is at least 1 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The qualifying districts are the 201 in which Harris received more votes than Trump in 2024, as calculated by The Downballot in its 2024 presidential results by congressional district table, for the district boundaries in use at the 2026 elections. That list is fixed as of Issuance and identified by state and district number, so later boundary changes and revisions to the 2024 vote totals do NOT add or remove districts. A district counts only if the candidate elected there at the Nov 3, 2026 general election, for the term beginning Jan 3, 2027, is listed on the ballot as a Republican, including as preferring the Republican Party where a state uses an open, top-two or top-four ballot. If a runoff is required to determine the winner of any race, the runoff result governs. Independent and third-party winners do NOT count, even if they caucus with Republicans.
