Will Ashley Hinson's Iowa Senate margin be larger than Roger Marshall's Kansas Senate margin in the November 3, 2026 general election?
If Ashley Hinson's margin in the Iowa U.S. Senate election minus Roger Marshall's margin in the Kansas U.S. Senate election is at least 0 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Each candidate's margin is their percentage of the total votes cast in their U.S. Senate race minus the percentage received by the highest-finishing other candidate in that race, calculated from the certified results. A margin is negative if the candidate does not finish first. Total votes cast include write-in votes reported in the certified results. The difference between the two margins is rounded to two decimal places. A difference of exactly 0.00 resolves Hinson Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the results of both races are certified.
