Will the number of Knesset seats held by the factions in Israel's next government be at least 45 when the Knesset approves it before Oct 28, 2027 (0 if it does not)?
If the number of Knesset seats held by the factions in Israel's next government is at least 45 when the Knesset approves it before Oct 28, 2027 (0 if it does not), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Israel's next government is the first one the Knesset elected on Oct 27, 2026 approves in a vote of confidence. A faction counts if it is part of that government's coalition: it signed a coalition agreement to join the government that was submitted to the Knesset before the vote, or one of its members is a minister when the Knesset approves the government or is appointed a deputy minister within 30 days after the vote. Factions that only support the government from outside the coalition or abstain do not count, including under a written support agreement. Seats are each faction's size in the Knesset on the day of the vote; later changes do not count. If that Knesset dissolves before approving a government, or none is approved before Oct 28, 2027, the number of seats is 0. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early when its outcome is determined.
