Market snapshot: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

How many Knesset seats will Israel's next government hold?

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K 726.44 contracts

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How many Knesset seats will Israel's next government hold?

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K 726.44 contracts

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Snapshot from Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC

As of Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is At least 45 at 71.5%.

Kalshi

At least 4571.5%
At least 5065.5%
At least 5562.5%
At least 6147.5%
At least 6623%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

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6 markets tracked

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Will the number of Knesset seats held by the factions in Israel's next government be at least 45 when the Knesset approves it before Oct 28, 2027 (0 if it does not)?

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Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the number of Knesset seats held by the factions in Israel's next government be at least 45 when the Knesset approves it before Oct 28, 2027 (0 if it does not)?	Kalshi	71.5%
Will the number of Knesset seats held by the factions in Israel's next government be at least 50 when the Knesset approves it before Oct 28, 2027 (0 if it does not)?	Kalshi	65.5%
Will the number of Knesset seats held by the factions in Israel's next government be at least 55 when the Knesset approves it before Oct 28, 2027 (0 if it does not)?	Kalshi	62.5%
Will the number of Knesset seats held by the factions in Israel's next government be at least 61 when the Knesset approves it before Oct 28, 2027 (0 if it does not)?	Kalshi	47.5%
Will the number of Knesset seats held by the factions in Israel's next government be at least 66 when the Knesset approves it before Oct 28, 2027 (0 if it does not)?	Kalshi	23.0%
Will the number of Knesset seats held by the factions in Israel's next government be at least 70 when the Knesset approves it before Oct 28, 2027 (0 if it does not)?	Kalshi	10.5%

Rules & Resolution

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K 726.44 contracts

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Source snapshot: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC

About This Event

At its confidence vote If the number of Knesset seats held by the factions in Israel's next government is at least X when the Knesset approves it before Oct 28, 2027, 0 if it does not, then the market resolves to Yes. Israel's next government is the first one the Knesset elected on Oct 27, 2026 approves in a vote of confidence. X faction counts if it is part of that government's coalition: it signed a coalition agreement to join the government that was submitted to the Knesset before the vote, or one of its members is a minister when the Knesset approves the government or is appointed a deputy minister within 30 days after the vote. Factions that only support the government from outside the coalition or abstain do not count, including under a written support agreement. Seats are each faction's size in the Knesset on the day of the vote; later changes do not count. If that Knesset dissolves before approving a government, or none is approved before Oct 28, 2027, the number of seats is 0. This market will close and expire early when its outcome is determined.

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Event: How many Knesset seats will Israel's next government hold?
Source snapshot: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported event volume (provider units): K 726.44 contracts
Coverage: 6 of 6 saved contracts included.
Prices are saved observations, not executable quotes. Listed close dates do not promise settlement or payout time.

Contract: Will the number of Knesset seats held by the factions in Israel's next government be at least 70 when the Knesset approves it before Oct 28, 2027 (0 if it does not)?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXISRCOALSEATS-26NOV06-AL70; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxisrcoalseats-26nov06
Observed: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 26, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 10.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 89.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the number of Knesset seats held by the factions in Israel's next government is at least 70 when the Knesset approves it before Oct 28, 2027 (0 if it does not), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Israel's next government is the first one the Knesset elected on Oct 27, 2026 approves in a vote of confidence. A faction counts if it is part of that government's coalition: it signed a coalition agreement to join the government that was submitted to the Knesset before the vote, or one of its members is a minister when the Knesset approves the government or is appointed a deputy minister within 30 days after the vote. Factions that only support the government from outside the coalition or abstain do not count, including under a written support agreement. Seats are each faction's size in the Knesset on the day of the vote; later changes do not count.

If that Knesset dissolves before approving a government, or none is approved before Oct 28, 2027, the number of seats is 0. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early when its outcome is determined.

Contract: Will the number of Knesset seats held by the factions in Israel's next government be at least 66 when the Knesset approves it before Oct 28, 2027 (0 if it does not)?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXISRCOALSEATS-26NOV06-AL66; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxisrcoalseats-26nov06
Observed: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 26, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 6.01 contracts
Outcome Yes: 23.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 77.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the number of Knesset seats held by the factions in Israel's next government is at least 66 when the Knesset approves it before Oct 28, 2027 (0 if it does not), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Israel's next government is the first one the Knesset elected on Oct 27, 2026 approves in a vote of confidence. A faction counts if it is part of that government's coalition: it signed a coalition agreement to join the government that was submitted to the Knesset before the vote, or one of its members is a minister when the Knesset approves the government or is appointed a deputy minister within 30 days after the vote. Factions that only support the government from outside the coalition or abstain do not count, including under a written support agreement. Seats are each faction's size in the Knesset on the day of the vote; later changes do not count.

If that Knesset dissolves before approving a government, or none is approved before Oct 28, 2027, the number of seats is 0. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early when its outcome is determined.

Contract: Will the number of Knesset seats held by the factions in Israel's next government be at least 61 when the Knesset approves it before Oct 28, 2027 (0 if it does not)?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXISRCOALSEATS-26NOV06-AL61; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxisrcoalseats-26nov06
Observed: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 26, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 283.26 contracts
Outcome Yes: 47.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 52.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the number of Knesset seats held by the factions in Israel's next government is at least 61 when the Knesset approves it before Oct 28, 2027 (0 if it does not), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Israel's next government is the first one the Knesset elected on Oct 27, 2026 approves in a vote of confidence. A faction counts if it is part of that government's coalition: it signed a coalition agreement to join the government that was submitted to the Knesset before the vote, or one of its members is a minister when the Knesset approves the government or is appointed a deputy minister within 30 days after the vote. Factions that only support the government from outside the coalition or abstain do not count, including under a written support agreement. Seats are each faction's size in the Knesset on the day of the vote; later changes do not count.

If that Knesset dissolves before approving a government, or none is approved before Oct 28, 2027, the number of seats is 0. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early when its outcome is determined.

Contract: Will the number of Knesset seats held by the factions in Israel's next government be at least 55 when the Knesset approves it before Oct 28, 2027 (0 if it does not)?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXISRCOALSEATS-26NOV06-AL55; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxisrcoalseats-26nov06
Observed: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 26, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 37.17 contracts
Outcome Yes: 62.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 37.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the number of Knesset seats held by the factions in Israel's next government is at least 55 when the Knesset approves it before Oct 28, 2027 (0 if it does not), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Israel's next government is the first one the Knesset elected on Oct 27, 2026 approves in a vote of confidence. A faction counts if it is part of that government's coalition: it signed a coalition agreement to join the government that was submitted to the Knesset before the vote, or one of its members is a minister when the Knesset approves the government or is appointed a deputy minister within 30 days after the vote. Factions that only support the government from outside the coalition or abstain do not count, including under a written support agreement. Seats are each faction's size in the Knesset on the day of the vote; later changes do not count.

If that Knesset dissolves before approving a government, or none is approved before Oct 28, 2027, the number of seats is 0. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early when its outcome is determined.

Contract: Will the number of Knesset seats held by the factions in Israel's next government be at least 50 when the Knesset approves it before Oct 28, 2027 (0 if it does not)?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXISRCOALSEATS-26NOV06-AL50; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxisrcoalseats-26nov06
Observed: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 26, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 65.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 34.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the number of Knesset seats held by the factions in Israel's next government is at least 50 when the Knesset approves it before Oct 28, 2027 (0 if it does not), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Israel's next government is the first one the Knesset elected on Oct 27, 2026 approves in a vote of confidence. A faction counts if it is part of that government's coalition: it signed a coalition agreement to join the government that was submitted to the Knesset before the vote, or one of its members is a minister when the Knesset approves the government or is appointed a deputy minister within 30 days after the vote. Factions that only support the government from outside the coalition or abstain do not count, including under a written support agreement. Seats are each faction's size in the Knesset on the day of the vote; later changes do not count.

If that Knesset dissolves before approving a government, or none is approved before Oct 28, 2027, the number of seats is 0. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early when its outcome is determined.

Contract: Will the number of Knesset seats held by the factions in Israel's next government be at least 45 when the Knesset approves it before Oct 28, 2027 (0 if it does not)?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXISRCOALSEATS-26NOV06-AL45; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxisrcoalseats-26nov06
Observed: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 26, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 400 contracts
Outcome Yes: 71.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 28.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the number of Knesset seats held by the factions in Israel's next government is at least 45 when the Knesset approves it before Oct 28, 2027 (0 if it does not), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Israel's next government is the first one the Knesset elected on Oct 27, 2026 approves in a vote of confidence. A faction counts if it is part of that government's coalition: it signed a coalition agreement to join the government that was submitted to the Knesset before the vote, or one of its members is a minister when the Knesset approves the government or is appointed a deputy minister within 30 days after the vote. Factions that only support the government from outside the coalition or abstain do not count, including under a written support agreement. Seats are each faction's size in the Knesset on the day of the vote; later changes do not count.

If that Knesset dissolves before approving a government, or none is approved before Oct 28, 2027, the number of seats is 0. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early when its outcome is determined.

Saved cross-platform review:
No exact pair with two valid binary Yes prices is available for comparison.

Explain the named outcomes, material rule/deadline differences, and evidence limits. Keep Polymarket dollar volume separate from Kalshi contract counts. Do not average unrelated contracts, infer missing prices or changes, or describe unreviewed/related pairs as equivalent. Distinguish listed prices from executable bid/ask prices, fees and available size. Do not invent current news, confidence scores or settlement guarantees. Cite the provided source links and identify what further evidence would be needed.

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KALSHIElections

How many Knesset seats will Israel's next government hold?

Volume$726.44

Markets6

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Will the number of Knesset seats held by the factions in Israel's next government be at least 45 when the Knesset approves it before Oct 28, 2027 (0 if it does not)?

kalshi

Will the number of Knesset seats held by the factions in Israel's next government be at least 45 when the Knesset approves it before Oct 28, 2027 (0 if it does not)?

Yes: 71.5¢
No: 28.5¢

Will the number of Knesset seats held by the factions in Israel's next government be at least 50 when the Knesset approves it before Oct 28, 2027 (0 if it does not)?

kalshi

Will the number of Knesset seats held by the factions in Israel's next government be at least 50 when the Knesset approves it before Oct 28, 2027 (0 if it does not)?

Yes: 65.5¢
No: 34.5¢

Will the number of Knesset seats held by the factions in Israel's next government be at least 55 when the Knesset approves it before Oct 28, 2027 (0 if it does not)?

kalshi

Will the number of Knesset seats held by the factions in Israel's next government be at least 55 when the Knesset approves it before Oct 28, 2027 (0 if it does not)?

Yes: 62.5¢
No: 37.5¢

Will the number of Knesset seats held by the factions in Israel's next government be at least 61 when the Knesset approves it before Oct 28, 2027 (0 if it does not)?

kalshi

Will the number of Knesset seats held by the factions in Israel's next government be at least 61 when the Knesset approves it before Oct 28, 2027 (0 if it does not)?

Yes: 47.5¢
No: 52.5¢

Will the number of Knesset seats held by the factions in Israel's next government be at least 66 when the Knesset approves it before Oct 28, 2027 (0 if it does not)?

kalshi

Will the number of Knesset seats held by the factions in Israel's next government be at least 66 when the Knesset approves it before Oct 28, 2027 (0 if it does not)?

Yes: 23.0¢
No: 77.0¢

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

PolymarketKalshiPolitics

Who will be Israeli interior minister after the election?

PM $780.7K · K 11.42M contracts

Will Yair Lapid be the next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?

Kalshi: Will Yair Lapid be Minister of Foreign Affairs as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Related contracts

PM Yes 36.5%Rules differK Yes 37%

Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Israeli Minister of Defense?

Kalshi: Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Avigdor Lieberman is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?

Related contracts

PM Yes 28.5%Rules differK Yes 21%

Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Israeli Minister of Finance?

Kalshi: Will Avigdor Lieberman be Minister of Finance as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Related contracts

PM Yes 21.5%Rules differK Yes 18.5%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

73 saved comparisonsNext deadline Mar 1, 2027 UTC

PolymarketWorld

Will Together be in the next Israeli government?

Kalshi: Will Together be a part of the next government in Israel?

Related contracts

PM Yes 73%Rules differK Yes 84%

Will Yashar be in the next Israeli government?

Kalshi: Will Yashar be a part of the next government in Israel?

Related contracts

PM Yes 78%Rules differK Yes 81%

Will Yisrael Beiteinu be in the next Israeli government?

Kalshi: Will Yisrael Beiteinu be a part of the next government in Israel?

Related contracts

PM Yes 71.5%Rules differK Yes 75.5%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

13 saved comparisonsNext deadline Jun 30, 2027 UTC

PolymarketKalshiPolitics

How many Israeli elections until a government forms?

PM $307.2K · K 5.3K contracts

Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?

Kalshi: Will the number of Israeli Knesset elections held be exactly 1 from the next Knesset election until a new government is formed or October 27, 2030 at 11:59:59 PM ET, whichever occurs first?

Related contracts

PM Yes 64.5%Rules differK Yes 68%

Will exactly 2 Israeli legislative elections occur before a government is formed?

Kalshi: Will the number of Israeli Knesset elections held be exactly 2 from the next Knesset election until a new government is formed or October 27, 2030 at 11:59:59 PM ET, whichever occurs first?

Related contracts

PM Yes 25.5%Rules differK Yes 22%

Will exactly 3 Israeli legislative elections occur before a government is formed?

Kalshi: Will the number of Israeli Knesset elections held be exactly 3 from the next Knesset election until a new government is formed or October 27, 2030 at 11:59:59 PM ET, whichever occurs first?

Related contracts

PM Yes 7.2%Rules differK Yes 7.5%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

5 saved comparisonsNext deadline Jan 1, 2028 UTC

PolymarketWorld

Who will receive the second mandate to form Israel's next government?

PM $32.8K

Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the second mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?Yes 45%

Will no second mandate to form a government be given after the 2026 Israeli election?Yes 45%

Will Avigdor Lieberman receive the second mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?Yes 1.1%

+18 moreNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC

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Jan 26, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC

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