Greater Manchester mayoral election margin of victory?

On Jul 30, 2026 If the margin of victory for the Labour Party in the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election falls within X to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows: If a candidate receives more than half of all valid first-choice votes, margins are calculated using first-choice vote shares. Otherwise, each remaining candidate’s vote share is calculated from their first-choice v