Which party will win the 2026 New Zealand general election?

in 2026 If X party wins the next New Zealand general election, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins. For referendums, "Yes" and "No" are the options. For presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system, electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable, is the winner.