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120th Congress: Who will get a vote for Speaker?

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EventKALSHI
120th Congress: Who will get a vote for Speaker?
120th Congress: Who will get a vote for Speaker?
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1.7K contracts

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Markets

7

Market snapshot: Nov 15, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC. Prices may have changed.

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7 markets tracked

Will it be confirmed that Ayanna Pressley receives at least one vote for Speaker of the House on a roll call at the opening of the 120th Congress?

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All Markets(7)
MarketOutcome price
Will it be confirmed that Ayanna Pressley receives at least one vote for Speaker of the House on a roll call at the opening of the 120th Congress?
Yes 66.0%
Will it be confirmed that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez receives at least one vote for Speaker of the House on a roll call at the opening of the 120th Congress?
Yes 64.0%
Will it be confirmed that Rashida Tlaib receives at least one vote for Speaker of the House on a roll call at the opening of the 120th Congress?
Yes 51.5%
Will it be confirmed that Steve Scalise receives at least one vote for Speaker of the House on a roll call at the opening of the 120th Congress?
Yes 50.5%
Will it be confirmed that Mike Johnson receives at least one vote for Speaker of the House on a roll call at the opening of the 120th Congress?
Yes 50.5%

Event Overview

Before Feb 1, 2027 If X receives at least one vote for Speaker of the House on a roll call at the opening of the 120th Congress after Issuance and before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. This must be confirmed, verified, or established as factual by at least one Source Agency before Feb 1, 2027. X person receives a vote when the roll call record of the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives, or a Source Agency report of that record, shows a vote cast for that person on a roll call to elect the Speaker at the opening of the 120th Congress. Every ballot held until a Speaker is elected counts, and one vote on any of them counts. A Member voting for themself counts, and so does a vote for a person who is not a Member of the House. If a Speaker is elected at the opening of the 120th Congress and the Clerk's record of those ballots shows no vote for this person, the market resolves to No once the Speaker is elected; a later report does not reopen it. The following do NOT count: X vote recorded as Present or Not Voting A vote the Member changes before that ballot's result is announced X vote for a name that does not identify this person alone, such as a surname shared by other Members, unless the record identifies them X vote in a party caucus or conference election X roll call to elect a Speaker after the opening of the Congress, such as to fill a vacancy X pledge, petition, or statement of support without a recorded vote This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

Market Resolution Rules

Important Notes

  • Markets resolve based on official data sources specified in the rules
  • Resolution may be delayed if official data is not immediately available
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Markets (7)

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KALSHIPolitics
Will it be confirmed that Ayanna Pressley receives at least one vote for Speaker of the House on a roll call at the opening of the 120th Congress?

Will it be confirmed that Ayanna Pressley receives at least one vote for Speaker of the House on a roll call at the opening of the 120th Congress?

If Ayanna Pressley receives at least one vote for Speaker of the House on a roll call at the opening of the 120th Congress after Issuance and before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This must be confirmed, verified, or established as factual by at least one Source Agency before Feb 1, 2027. A person receives a vote when the roll call record of the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives, or a Source Agency report of that record, shows a vote cast for that person on a roll call to elect the Speaker at the opening of the 120th Congress. Every ballot held until a Speaker is elected counts, and one vote on any of them counts. A Member voting for themself counts, and so does a vote for a person who is not a Member of the House. If a Speaker is elected at the opening of the 120th Congress and the Clerk's record of those ballots shows no vote for this person, the market resolves to No once the Speaker is elected; a later report does not reopen it. The following do NOT count: A vote recorded as Present or Not Voting A vote the Member changes before that ballot's result is announced A vote for a name that does not identify this person alone, such as a surname shared by other Members, unless the record identifies them A vote in a party caucus or conference election A roll call to elect a Speaker after the opening of the Congress, such as to fill a vacancy A pledge, petition, or statement of support without a recorded vote Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

Yes outcome66.0%
Yes
Volume385.91 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateFeb 08, 2027
View Details
KALSHIPolitics
Will it be confirmed that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez receives at least one vote for Speaker of the House on a roll call at the opening of the 120th Congress?

Will it be confirmed that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez receives at least one vote for Speaker of the House on a roll call at the opening of the 120th Congress?

If Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez receives at least one vote for Speaker of the House on a roll call at the opening of the 120th Congress after Issuance and before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This must be confirmed, verified, or established as factual by at least one Source Agency before Feb 1, 2027. A person receives a vote when the roll call record of the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives, or a Source Agency report of that record, shows a vote cast for that person on a roll call to elect the Speaker at the opening of the 120th Congress. Every ballot held until a Speaker is elected counts, and one vote on any of them counts. A Member voting for themself counts, and so does a vote for a person who is not a Member of the House. If a Speaker is elected at the opening of the 120th Congress and the Clerk's record of those ballots shows no vote for this person, the market resolves to No once the Speaker is elected; a later report does not reopen it. The following do NOT count: A vote recorded as Present or Not Voting A vote the Member changes before that ballot's result is announced A vote for a name that does not identify this person alone, such as a surname shared by other Members, unless the record identifies them A vote in a party caucus or conference election A roll call to elect a Speaker after the opening of the Congress, such as to fill a vacancy A pledge, petition, or statement of support without a recorded vote Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

Yes outcome64.0%
Yes
Volume827.84 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateFeb 08, 2027
View Details
KALSHIPolitics
Will it be confirmed that Rashida Tlaib receives at least one vote for Speaker of the House on a roll call at the opening of the 120th Congress?

Will it be confirmed that Rashida Tlaib receives at least one vote for Speaker of the House on a roll call at the opening of the 120th Congress?

If Rashida Tlaib receives at least one vote for Speaker of the House on a roll call at the opening of the 120th Congress after Issuance and before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This must be confirmed, verified, or established as factual by at least one Source Agency before Feb 1, 2027. A person receives a vote when the roll call record of the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives, or a Source Agency report of that record, shows a vote cast for that person on a roll call to elect the Speaker at the opening of the 120th Congress. Every ballot held until a Speaker is elected counts, and one vote on any of them counts. A Member voting for themself counts, and so does a vote for a person who is not a Member of the House. If a Speaker is elected at the opening of the 120th Congress and the Clerk's record of those ballots shows no vote for this person, the market resolves to No once the Speaker is elected; a later report does not reopen it. The following do NOT count: A vote recorded as Present or Not Voting A vote the Member changes before that ballot's result is announced A vote for a name that does not identify this person alone, such as a surname shared by other Members, unless the record identifies them A vote in a party caucus or conference election A roll call to elect a Speaker after the opening of the Congress, such as to fill a vacancy A pledge, petition, or statement of support without a recorded vote Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

Yes outcome51.5%
Yes
Volume200 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateFeb 08, 2027
View Details
KALSHIPolitics
Will it be confirmed that Steve Scalise receives at least one vote for Speaker of the House on a roll call at the opening of the 120th Congress?

Will it be confirmed that Steve Scalise receives at least one vote for Speaker of the House on a roll call at the opening of the 120th Congress?

If Steve Scalise receives at least one vote for Speaker of the House on a roll call at the opening of the 120th Congress after Issuance and before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This must be confirmed, verified, or established as factual by at least one Source Agency before Feb 1, 2027. A person receives a vote when the roll call record of the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives, or a Source Agency report of that record, shows a vote cast for that person on a roll call to elect the Speaker at the opening of the 120th Congress. Every ballot held until a Speaker is elected counts, and one vote on any of them counts. A Member voting for themself counts, and so does a vote for a person who is not a Member of the House. If a Speaker is elected at the opening of the 120th Congress and the Clerk's record of those ballots shows no vote for this person, the market resolves to No once the Speaker is elected; a later report does not reopen it. The following do NOT count: A vote recorded as Present or Not Voting A vote the Member changes before that ballot's result is announced A vote for a name that does not identify this person alone, such as a surname shared by other Members, unless the record identifies them A vote in a party caucus or conference election A roll call to elect a Speaker after the opening of the Congress, such as to fill a vacancy A pledge, petition, or statement of support without a recorded vote Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

Yes outcome50.5%
Yes
Volume0 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateFeb 08, 2027
View Details
KALSHIPolitics
Will it be confirmed that Mike Johnson receives at least one vote for Speaker of the House on a roll call at the opening of the 120th Congress?

Will it be confirmed that Mike Johnson receives at least one vote for Speaker of the House on a roll call at the opening of the 120th Congress?

If Mike Johnson receives at least one vote for Speaker of the House on a roll call at the opening of the 120th Congress after Issuance and before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This must be confirmed, verified, or established as factual by at least one Source Agency before Feb 1, 2027. A person receives a vote when the roll call record of the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives, or a Source Agency report of that record, shows a vote cast for that person on a roll call to elect the Speaker at the opening of the 120th Congress. Every ballot held until a Speaker is elected counts, and one vote on any of them counts. A Member voting for themself counts, and so does a vote for a person who is not a Member of the House. If a Speaker is elected at the opening of the 120th Congress and the Clerk's record of those ballots shows no vote for this person, the market resolves to No once the Speaker is elected; a later report does not reopen it. The following do NOT count: A vote recorded as Present or Not Voting A vote the Member changes before that ballot's result is announced A vote for a name that does not identify this person alone, such as a surname shared by other Members, unless the record identifies them A vote in a party caucus or conference election A roll call to elect a Speaker after the opening of the Congress, such as to fill a vacancy A pledge, petition, or statement of support without a recorded vote Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

Yes outcome50.5%
Yes
Volume0 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateFeb 08, 2027
View Details
KALSHIPolitics
Will it be confirmed that Bernie Sanders receives at least one vote for Speaker of the House on a roll call at the opening of the 120th Congress?

Will it be confirmed that Bernie Sanders receives at least one vote for Speaker of the House on a roll call at the opening of the 120th Congress?

If Bernie Sanders receives at least one vote for Speaker of the House on a roll call at the opening of the 120th Congress after Issuance and before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This must be confirmed, verified, or established as factual by at least one Source Agency before Feb 1, 2027. A person receives a vote when the roll call record of the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives, or a Source Agency report of that record, shows a vote cast for that person on a roll call to elect the Speaker at the opening of the 120th Congress. Every ballot held until a Speaker is elected counts, and one vote on any of them counts. A Member voting for themself counts, and so does a vote for a person who is not a Member of the House. If a Speaker is elected at the opening of the 120th Congress and the Clerk's record of those ballots shows no vote for this person, the market resolves to No once the Speaker is elected; a later report does not reopen it. The following do NOT count: A vote recorded as Present or Not Voting A vote the Member changes before that ballot's result is announced A vote for a name that does not identify this person alone, such as a surname shared by other Members, unless the record identifies them A vote in a party caucus or conference election A roll call to elect a Speaker after the opening of the Congress, such as to fill a vacancy A pledge, petition, or statement of support without a recorded vote Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

Yes outcome5.5%
Yes
Volume300 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateFeb 08, 2027
View Details
KALSHIPolitics
Will it be confirmed that Thomas Massie receives at least one vote for Speaker of the House on a roll call at the opening of the 120th Congress?

Will it be confirmed that Thomas Massie receives at least one vote for Speaker of the House on a roll call at the opening of the 120th Congress?

If Thomas Massie receives at least one vote for Speaker of the House on a roll call at the opening of the 120th Congress after Issuance and before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This must be confirmed, verified, or established as factual by at least one Source Agency before Feb 1, 2027. A person receives a vote when the roll call record of the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives, or a Source Agency report of that record, shows a vote cast for that person on a roll call to elect the Speaker at the opening of the 120th Congress. Every ballot held until a Speaker is elected counts, and one vote on any of them counts. A Member voting for themself counts, and so does a vote for a person who is not a Member of the House. If a Speaker is elected at the opening of the 120th Congress and the Clerk's record of those ballots shows no vote for this person, the market resolves to No once the Speaker is elected; a later report does not reopen it. The following do NOT count: A vote recorded as Present or Not Voting A vote the Member changes before that ballot's result is announced A vote for a name that does not identify this person alone, such as a surname shared by other Members, unless the record identifies them A vote in a party caucus or conference election A roll call to elect a Speaker after the opening of the Congress, such as to fill a vacancy A pledge, petition, or statement of support without a recorded vote Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

Yes outcome3.5%
Yes
Volume0 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateFeb 08, 2027
View Details

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