Will Van Hollen get at least 8 votes on the first Senate leader ballot?
If the number of votes cast for Chris Van Hollen on the first ballot in the Senate Democratic caucus election for its leader for the 120th Congress is at least 8 before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The first ballot is the first ballot held by the Senate Democratic caucus to elect its leader for the 120th Congress. The count is the number of votes cast for Chris Van Hollen on it, as reported by a Source Agency. The count is 0 if no ballot is held before Jan 3, 2027, including if the caucus elects its leader without one (for example by acclamation, voice vote or unanimous consent). A report that the leader was elected unanimously that gives no number and does not say a ballot was held counts as an election without a ballot, unless a Source Agency reports that a ballot was held. If Chris Van Hollen withdraws, the count is the number of votes cast for him on the first ballot, and 0 if none were cast. Only an exact number reported by a Source Agency counts; a range, a margin or an approximate number does not. If a ballot is held but no Source Agency reports the number of votes cast for Chris Van Hollen by the Expiration Date, the market resolves to the last fair price as solely determined by the Exchange. If Source Agencies report different counts, the count reported by the Source Agency listed first is used. The following do NOT count: Votes cast for Chris Van Hollen on a later ballot A motion or voice vote after a ballot to make the result unanimous Votes cast for any other candidate, or abstentions Early close condition: This market will close and expire early once the Senate Democratic caucus has elected its leader for the 120th Congress.
