Will U.S. real average hourly earnings growth (all private employees, YoY, seasonally adjusted) for December 2026 be above 0.0%?
If the seasonally adjusted 12-month percent change in U.S. real average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls for December 2026 is strictly above 0.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the seasonally adjusted percentage change in real average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls from December 2025 to December 2026, as reported in BLS’s Real Earnings release for December 2026. This measure adjusts hourly earnings for inflation using CPI-U. The first published percentage change will be used, including if designated preliminary, at the precision reported by BLS. Subsequent revisions will not affect resolution. A reported change of 0.0% or less resolves No. The market measures December-to-December growth, not the change in annual averages. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.