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How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?

Event Group
EventPOLYMARKET

How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?

How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
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Vol

$525.8K

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Markets

8

Market snapshot: Oct 26, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC. Prices may have changed.

Market Price Graph

8 markets tracked

Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?

polymarket

No data available

All Markets(8)
MarketOutcome price
Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
Yes 54.0%
Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
Yes 38.0%
Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
Yes 1.2%
Will 9-10 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
Yes 0.6%
Will more than 16 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
Yes 0.4%

Event Overview

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Market Resolution RulesSame rules for all markets

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Saved descriptions match across 8 contracts. Check each contract on the provider for its full terms.

Important Notes

  • Markets resolve based on official data sources specified in the rules
  • Resolution may be delayed if official data is not immediately available
  • Polymarket uses UMA protocol for dispute resolution when necessary
  • Always verify the exact resolution criteria before trading

Markets (8)

Sort
POLYMARKETScience
Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?

Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

LiquidityLOW
Yes outcome54.0%
Yes
Volume$105.0K
Liquidity$1.1K
End DateJan 01, 2027
View Details
POLYMARKETScience
Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?

Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

LiquidityLOW
Yes outcome38.0%
Yes
Volume$119.9K
Liquidity$672
End DateJan 01, 2027
View Details
POLYMARKETScience
Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?

Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

LiquidityLOW
Yes outcome1.2%
Yes
Volume$164.7K
Liquidity$1.9K
End DateJan 01, 2027
View Details
POLYMARKETScience
Will 9-10 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?

Will 9-10 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

LiquidityLOW
Yes outcome0.6%
Yes
Volume$66.4K
Liquidity$1.1K
End DateJan 01, 2027
View Details
POLYMARKETScience
Will more than 16 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?

Will more than 16 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

LiquidityLOW
Yes outcome0.4%
Yes
Volume$15.3K
Liquidity$1.8K
End DateJan 01, 2027
View Details
POLYMARKETScience
Will 11-12 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?

Will 11-12 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

LiquidityLOW
Yes outcome0.1%
Yes
Volume$11.4K
Liquidity$2.1K
End DateJan 01, 2027
View Details
POLYMARKETScience
Will 13-14 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?

Will 13-14 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

LiquidityLOW
Yes outcome<0.1%
Yes
Volume$11.1K
Liquidity$2.2K
End DateJan 01, 2027
View Details
POLYMARKETScience
Will 15-16 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?

Will 15-16 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

LiquidityLOW
Yes outcome<0.1%
Yes
Volume$32.1K
Liquidity$2.8K
End DateJan 01, 2027
View Details

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