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November 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?

Event Group
EventPOLYMARKET

November 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?

November 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?
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Vol

$608.74

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Markets

4

Market snapshot: Oct 31, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC. Prices may have changed.

Market Price Graph

4 markets tracked

Will November 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?

polymarket

No data available

All Markets(4)
MarketOutcome price
Will November 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?
Yes 90.0%
Will November 2026 be the 4th or lower on record?
Yes 26.5%
Will November 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?
Yes 13.0%
Will November 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?
Yes 8.5%

Event Overview

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for November 2026 versus the data points available for all other Novembers on record. Note: If November 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for November 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

Market Resolution RulesSame rules for all markets

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for November 2026 versus the data points available for all other Novembers on record. Note: If November 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for November 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

Saved descriptions match across 4 contracts. Check each contract on the provider for its full terms.

Important Notes

  • Markets resolve based on official data sources specified in the rules
  • Resolution may be delayed if official data is not immediately available
  • Polymarket uses UMA protocol for dispute resolution when necessary
  • Always verify the exact resolution criteria before trading

Markets (4)

Sort
POLYMARKETScience
Will November 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?

Will November 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for November 2026 versus the data points available for all other Novembers on record. Note: If November 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for November 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

LiquidityLOW
Yes outcome90.0%
Yes
Volume$388.4
Liquidity$122
End DateDec 29, 2026
View Details
POLYMARKETScience
Will November 2026 be the 4th or lower on record?

Will November 2026 be the 4th or lower on record?

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for November 2026 versus the data points available for all other Novembers on record. Note: If November 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for November 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

LiquidityLOW
Yes outcome26.5%
Yes
Volume$120.34
Liquidity$96
End DateDec 29, 2026
View Details
POLYMARKETScience
Will November 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?

Will November 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for November 2026 versus the data points available for all other Novembers on record. Note: If November 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for November 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

LiquidityLOW
Yes outcome13.0%
Yes
Volume$50
Liquidity$271
End DateDec 29, 2026
View Details
POLYMARKETScience
Will November 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?

Will November 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for November 2026 versus the data points available for all other Novembers on record. Note: If November 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for November 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

LiquidityLOW
Yes outcome8.5%
Yes
Volume$50
Liquidity$108
End DateDec 29, 2026
View Details

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