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Will November 2026 be the 4th or lower on record?

Yes 26.5%

Vol$120.34

SnapshotOct 31, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC

Yes 26.5%

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Event

MarketPOLYMARKETactive

MarketPOLYMARKETactiveScience

Will November 2026 be the 4th or lower on record?

Part of: November 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?

YesYes Price

26.5¢

VolTotal Volume

$120.34

Outcomes

Ends

Dec 29, 2026, 5:00 AM UTC

Trade on Polymarket

Will November 2026 be the 4th or lower on record?

Yes

26.5¢

Vol

$120.34

Outcomes

Trade

Yes26.5¢

No73.5¢

Outcome

Yes quoted price: 26.5%. Snapshot Oct 31, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC. History may have a different observation time.

Price History

Will November 2026 be the 4th or lower on record? · Yes

No historical data available

Price history will appear here when available

Rules and settlement

Listed close: Dec 29, 2026, 5:00 AM UTC. Settlement follows the provider's contract terms and may occur later.

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for November 2026 versus the data points available for all other Novembers on record. Note: If November 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for November 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

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Resolution Info