Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

30-year mortgage rate this week

Total Volume

$13.16K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

30-year mortgage rate this week

Vol

$13.16K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $13.16K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $13.16K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

19 markets tracked

Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 be above 7.34%?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(19)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 be above 7.34%?	Kalshi	82%
Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 be above 7.36%?	Kalshi	78%
Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 be above 7.38%?	Kalshi	56%
Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 be above 7.40%?	Kalshi	43%
Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 be above 7.42%?	Kalshi	25%
Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 be above 7.44%?	Kalshi	16%
Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 be above 7.46%?	Kalshi	14%
Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 be above 7.48%?	Kalshi	9%
Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 be above 7.58%?	Kalshi	5%
Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 be above 7.56%?	Kalshi	5%
Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 be above 7.54%?	Kalshi	5%
Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 be above 7.52%?	Kalshi	5%
Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 be above 7.50%?	Kalshi	5%
Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 be above 7.62%?	Kalshi	3%
Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 be above 7.60%?	Kalshi	3%
Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 be above 7.68%?	Kalshi	2%
Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 be above 7.66%?	Kalshi	2%
Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 be above 7.64%?	Kalshi	2%
Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 be above 7.70%?	Kalshi	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

82%

Top Probability

$13.16K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Oct 15, 2026 If the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 is above X then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage national average published by Freddie Mac in its Primary Mortgage Market Survey, PMMS, for Oct 15, 2026. For a standard Thursday publication, the weekly measurement period runs from 12:00 a.m. ET on the preceding Thursday through 11:59 p.m. ET on Wednesday. The resulting national average is published Thursday at 12:00 p.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** 30-year mortgage rate this week
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Oct 15, 2026

If the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 is above X then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage national average published by Freddie Mac in its Primary Mortgage Market Survey, PMMS, for Oct 15, 2026. For a standard Thursday publication, the weekly measurement period runs from 12:00 a.m. ET on the preceding Thursday through 11:59 p.m. ET on Wednesday. The resulting national average is published Thursday at 12:00 p.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 is above 

7.70%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage national average published by Freddie Mac in its Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) for Oct 15, 2026.

For a "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $13.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 be above 7.70%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 22, 2026): Vol $3.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 be above 7.68%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 22, 2026): Vol $86
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 be above 7.66%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 22, 2026): Vol $20
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 be above 7.64%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 22, 2026): Vol $2.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 be above 7.62%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 22, 2026): Vol $390
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 be above 7.60%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 22, 2026): Vol $236
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 be above 7.58%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 22, 2026): Vol $264
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 be above 7.56%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 22, 2026): Vol $234
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 be above 7.54%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 22, 2026): Vol $402
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 be above 7.52%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 22, 2026): Vol $242
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 be above 7.50%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 22, 2026): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 be above 7.48%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 22, 2026): Vol $203
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 be above 7.46%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 22, 2026): Vol $117
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 be above 7.44%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 22, 2026): Vol $300
  DATA: [Yes: 16.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 be above 7.42%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 22, 2026): Vol $201
  DATA: [Yes: 25.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.0% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 be above 7.40%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 22, 2026): Vol $336
  DATA: [Yes: 42.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.5% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 be above 7.38%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 22, 2026): Vol $601
  DATA: [Yes: 56.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 43.5% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 be above 7.36%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 22, 2026): Vol $2.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 77.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 22.5% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 be above 7.34%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 22, 2026): Vol $809
  DATA: [Yes: 82.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 18.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

30-year mortgage rate this week

Volume$13.16K

Markets19

19 of 19

Sort:

KALSHI

Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 be above 7.34%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 82.0¢No 18.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 be above 7.34%?

If the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 is above 7.34%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage national average published by Freddie Mac in its Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) for Oct 15, 2026. For a

KALSHI

Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 be above 7.36%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 77.5¢No 22.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 be above 7.36%?

If the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 is above 7.36%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage national average published by Freddie Mac in its Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) for Oct 15, 2026. For a

KALSHI

Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 be above 7.38%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 56.5¢No 43.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 be above 7.38%?

If the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 is above 7.38%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage national average published by Freddie Mac in its Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) for Oct 15, 2026. For a

KALSHI

Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 be above 7.40%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 42.5¢No 57.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 be above 7.40%?

If the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 is above 7.40%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage national average published by Freddie Mac in its Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) for Oct 15, 2026. For a

KALSHI

Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 be above 7.42%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 25.0¢No 75.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 be above 7.42%?

If the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 is above 7.42%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage national average published by Freddie Mac in its Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) for Oct 15, 2026. For a

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30-year mortgage rate this week

30-year mortgage rate this week

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Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 be above 7.34%?

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Events (1)

30-year mortgage rate this week

Markets (19)

Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 be above 7.34%?

Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 be above 7.34%?

Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 be above 7.36%?

Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 be above 7.36%?

Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 be above 7.38%?

Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 be above 7.38%?

Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 be above 7.40%?

Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 be above 7.40%?

Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 be above 7.42%?

Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 be above 7.42%?

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Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 be above 7.34%?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

30-year mortgage rate this week

Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 be above 7.34%?

Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 be above 7.34%?

Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 be above 7.36%?

Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 be above 7.36%?

Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 be above 7.38%?

Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 be above 7.38%?

Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 be above 7.40%?

Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 be above 7.40%?

Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 be above 7.42%?

Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 be above 7.42%?

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