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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETEconomy

UK GDP growth in Q1 2026?

Name: UK GDP growth in Q1 2026?
End: 2026-05-14T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$25.11K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

UK GDP growth in Q1 2026?

Vol

$25.11K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $25.11K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $25.11K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

8 markets tracked

Will UK GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 0.9% and 1.2%?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will UK GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 0.9% and 1.2%?	Poly	23%
Will UK GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 0.6% and 0.9%?	Poly	22%
Will UK GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 0.3% and 0.6%?	Poly	19%
Will UK GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.5% and 1.8%?	Poly	8%
Will UK GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.2% and 1.5%?	Poly	8%
Will UK GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 0% and 0.3%?	Poly	7%
Will UK GDP growth in Q1 2026 be at least 1.8%?	Poly	5%
Will UK GDP growth in Q1 2026 be negative?	Poly	4%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

23%

Top Probability

$25.11K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlye

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Wednesday, July 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** UK GDP growth in Q1 2026?
**Category:** Economy | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 14, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlye

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between tw"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $25.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $11.0K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 2.29)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will UK GDP growth in Q1 2026 be negative?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 14, 2026): Vol $2.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.7% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will UK GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 0.9% and 1.2%?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 14, 2026): Vol $786
  DATA: [Yes: 23.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.6% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will UK GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 0.3% and 0.6%?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 14, 2026): Vol $1.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 19.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.8% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will UK GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.5% and 1.8%?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 14, 2026): Vol $838
  DATA: [Yes: 7.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.2% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will UK GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 0% and 0.3%?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 14, 2026): Vol $10.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will UK GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.2% and 1.5%?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 14, 2026): Vol $730
  DATA: [Yes: 7.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.2% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will UK GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 0.6% and 0.9%?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 14, 2026): Vol $7.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 22.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will UK GDP growth in Q1 2026 be at least 1.8%?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 14, 2026): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.3% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETEconomy