Market snapshot: Oct 13, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?

Name: Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?
End: 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$286.04K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?

Vol

$286.04K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $286.04K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $286.04K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?	Poly	5%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

Top Probability

$286.04K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 1, 2027 (81 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $286.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $42.6K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 6.72)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $286.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics