2026 Oscar for Best Music (Original Score)? | PredictPedia

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21 markets tracked

Will Sinners win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?

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Single-Platform Markets(21)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Sinners win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?	Kalshi	88%
Will One Battle after Another win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?	Kalshi	7%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?	Kalshi	1%
Will F1 win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?	Kalshi	1%
Will Wicked: For Good win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?	Kalshi	1%
Will Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?	Kalshi	1%
Will Truth and Treason win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?	Kalshi	1%
Will Tron: Ares win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?	Kalshi	1%
Will Train Dreams win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?	Kalshi	1%
Will Tie win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?	Kalshi	1%
Will Sirât win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?	Kalshi	1%
Will Nuremberg win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?	Kalshi	1%
Will Jay Kelly win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?	Kalshi	1%
Will A House of Dynamite win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?	Kalshi	1%
Will Hedda win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?	Kalshi	1%
Will Hamnet win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?	Kalshi	1%
Will Frankenstein win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?	Kalshi	1%
Will Diane Warren: Relentless win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?	Kalshi	1%
Will Captain America: Brave New World win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?	Kalshi	1%
Will Bugonia win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?	Kalshi	1%
Will Avatar: Fire and Ash win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?	Kalshi	1%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, January 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** 2026 Oscar for Best Music (Original Score)?
**Category:** Entertainment | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If X has won Best Music, Original Score, at the 98th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. The 98th Academy Awards are expected to be held on March 15, 2026.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Wicked: For Good has won Best Music (Original Score) at the 98th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The 98th Academy Awards are expected to be held on March 15, 2026."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $19.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $7.77M
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Wicked: For Good win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Truth and Treason win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Tron: Ares win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $777
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Train Dreams win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Tie win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Sirât win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $953
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Sinners win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $7.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 88.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 12.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will One Battle after Another win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $2.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Nuremberg win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Marty Supreme win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $2.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Jay Kelly win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $233
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will A House of Dynamite win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Hedda win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Hamnet win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Frankenstein win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $100
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will F1 win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $2.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Diane Warren: Relentless win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will Captain America: Brave New World win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will Bugonia win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $494
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will Avatar: Fire and Ash win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $362
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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5¢

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2026 Oscar for Best Music (Original Score)?

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Will Sinners win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?

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Events (1)

2026 Oscar for Best Music (Original Score)?

Markets (21)

Will Sinners win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?

Will Sinners win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?

Will One Battle after Another win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?

Will One Battle after Another win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?

Will Marty Supreme win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?

Will Marty Supreme win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?

Will F1 win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?

Will F1 win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?

Will Wicked: For Good win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?

Will Wicked: For Good win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?

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Will Sinners win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

2026 Oscar for Best Music (Original Score)?

Will Sinners win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?

Will Sinners win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?

Will One Battle after Another win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?

Will One Battle after Another win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?

Will Marty Supreme win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?

Will Marty Supreme win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?

Will F1 win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?

Will F1 win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?

Will Wicked: For Good win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?

Will Wicked: For Good win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?

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