Name: How many 6.5 or above earthquakes by January 18?
End: 2026-01-18T00:00:00.000Z

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How many 6.5 or above earthquakes by January 18? | PredictPedia

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Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?

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Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?	Poly	72%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?	Poly	27%
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?	Poly	3%
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?	Poly	1%
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?	Poly	1%
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?	Poly	0%
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?	Poly	0%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, January 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many 6.5 or above earthquakes by January 18?
**Category:** Science | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 18, 2026 (2 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Critical

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 12, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and January 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on th

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 12, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and January 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthqua"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $49.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $7.1K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 6.98)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 18, 2026): Vol $5.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 18, 2026): Vol $8.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.6% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 18, 2026): Vol $3.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 18, 2026): Vol $5.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 18, 2026): Vol $14.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 72.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 28.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 18, 2026): Vol $7.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 26.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 18, 2026): Vol $4.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.9% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

1d 12h remaining

Jan 18, 2026 12:00 AM

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15¢

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Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?

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Events (1)

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes by January 18?

Markets (7)

Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?

Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?

Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?

Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?

Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?

Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?

Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?

Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?

Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?

Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?

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Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?

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How many 6.5 or above earthquakes by January 18?

Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?

Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?

Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?

Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?

Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?

Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?

Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?

Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?

Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?

Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?

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