
$30.80K
1
6

$30.80K
1
6
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
On Jan 16, 2026 If the minimum temperature recorded at Miami for Jan 16, 2026, is X than Y fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report, Daily, then the market resolves to Yes. Data for CLIMIA can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=mfl, navigating to the "Observed Weather" tab, and choosing the location "Miami, FL" with Daily Climate Report selected. Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date, keepi
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic focuses on forecasting the minimum temperature recorded in Miami, Florida, on January 15, 2026. The outcome will be determined by the official daily climate report from the National Weather Service's Weather Forecast Office in Miami (WFO MFL), specifically using data for the location identifier 'Miami, FL.' Participants are essentially betting on whether the observed low temperature will be above or below a specific threshold value 'Y,' which is defined within the market contract. This type of weather derivative market attracts interest from meteorologists, climate researchers, agricultural planners, tourism industry analysts, and speculative traders who analyze seasonal forecasts and historical climate patterns. The specific date in mid-January places the prediction within the heart of Miami's dry season, a period characterized by generally mild and stable weather but subject to occasional cold fronts that can produce significant temperature drops. Interest in such a market stems from its practical implications for energy demand forecasting, crop management in South Florida, and the hospitality sector, as well as its value as a measurable indicator of short-term climate variability within a broader context of global climate change discussions.
Miami's climate is subtropical, with January typically being one of the coolest months. Historical analysis of temperature extremes provides crucial context for this prediction. The all-time record low temperature for Miami is 30 degrees Fahrenheit, set on February 3, 1917. For the month of January specifically, the record low is 31 degrees Fahrenheit, last recorded on January 22, 1985. More recently, a significant cold snap occurred in January 2010, when temperatures dropped to the mid-30s across South Florida, causing widespread agricultural damage. The frequency of such cold events has decreased over recent decades, a trend consistent with observed warming in the region. For the specific date of January 15, historical data shows a wide range of minimum temperatures. For example, on January 15, 2024, the low was 66°F, while on January 15, 2018, it was a cooler 57°F. The variability is driven primarily by the passage of continental cold fronts, whose strength and penetration into South Florida are influenced by broader atmospheric patterns like the North Atlantic Oscillation and the position of the jet stream. This historical volatility, within a general warming trend, defines the challenge of predicting a single day's low temperature years in advance.
The outcome of this specific temperature prediction has tangible economic and environmental ramifications. For South Florida's agricultural sector, particularly tropical fruit and winter vegetable growers, a temperature below a certain threshold can trigger costly freeze protection measures and cause direct crop loss, impacting local markets and export volumes. The region's energy grid is also sensitive to cold snaps, as increased heating demand, though modest compared to northern states, can strain electrical infrastructure and affect natural gas prices. Furthermore, Miami's tourism and hospitality industry, a cornerstone of the local economy, monitors winter temperatures closely, as unseasonably cold weather can alter tourist behavior and affect revenue for beaches, outdoor attractions, and related businesses. Beyond immediate impacts, such granular weather predictions contribute to the larger study of microclimate variability and the validation of seasonal forecasting models, offering data points that help climatologists understand how global climate change manifests in local, daily weather extremes.
As of late 2024, meteorological focus for January 2026 is preliminary. The Climate Prediction Center's long-lead outlooks do not yet extend to that specific period. Current seasonal forecasting relies on assessing the state of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Predictions for the 2025-2026 winter will become more refined throughout 2025 as ENSO conditions for that period become clearer. The latest multi-model ensembles suggest a potential return to neutral ENSO conditions by that winter, but significant uncertainty remains. Market participants are currently basing assessments on climatological norms and decadal trends while awaiting more definitive seasonal forecasts in mid-to-late 2025.
The all-time record low temperature for Miami is 30 degrees Fahrenheit, which occurred on February 3, 1917. This record has stood for over a century and represents the absolute minimum benchmark for cold in the city's history.
The official observing site for Miami is Miami International Airport (KMIA). The temperature data used for climate records and the Daily Climate Report referenced in this market comes from sensors at this location, ensuring consistency and adherence to national standards.
Forecast skill for a specific day's temperature decreases rapidly beyond about 10 days. For a date in January 2026, current forecasts have no specific skill. Predictions rely on probabilistic seasonal outlooks (e.g., chances of a colder/warmer than average month) and climatology, not a deterministic daily forecast.
Cold temperatures in Miami during winter are almost exclusively caused by the southward penetration of continental high-pressure systems, known as cold fronts. The strength of these fronts determines how far south and how intensely the cold air reaches South Florida.
During El Niño winters, the southern jet stream is often more active, leading to increased storminess and cloud cover over Florida. This can result in slightly cooler daytime temperatures but can also moderate overnight lows by trapping heat, making extreme cold less likely compared to La Niña or neutral winters.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
Share your predictions and analysis with other traders. Coming soon!
6 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will the minimum temperature be 44-45° on Jan 16, 2026? | Kalshi | 96% |
Will the minimum temperature be 42-43° on Jan 16, 2026? | Kalshi | 2% |
Will the minimum temperature be >45° on Jan 16, 2026? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will the minimum temperature be <38° on Jan 16, 2026? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will the minimum temperature be 40-41° on Jan 16, 2026? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will the minimum temperature be 38-39° on Jan 16, 2026? | Kalshi | 1% |
No related news found
Add this market to your website
<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/-NXOTc" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Lowest temperature in Miami on Jan 16, 2026?"></iframe>