This prediction market topic focuses on forecasting the minimum temperature recorded in Miami, Florida, on January 15, 2026. The outcome will be determined by the official daily climate report from the National Weather Service's Weather Forecast Office in Miami (WFO MFL), specifically using data for the location identifier 'Miami, FL.' Participants are essentially betting on whether the observed low temperature will be above or below a specific threshold value 'Y,' which is defined within the market contract. This type of weather derivative market attracts interest from meteorologists, climate researchers, agricultural planners, tourism industry analysts, and speculative traders who analyze seasonal forecasts and historical climate patterns. The specific date in mid-January places the prediction within the heart of Miami's dry season, a period characterized by generally mild and stable weather but subject to occasional cold fronts that can produce significant temperature drops. Interest in such a market stems from its practical implications for energy demand forecasting, crop management in South Florida, and the hospitality sector, as well as its value as a measurable indicator of short-term climate variability within a broader context of global climate change discussions.

Historical Context

Miami's climate is subtropical, with January typically being one of the coolest months. Historical analysis of temperature extremes provides crucial context for this prediction. The all-time record low temperature for Miami is 30 degrees Fahrenheit, set on February 3, 1917. For the month of January specifically, the record low is 31 degrees Fahrenheit, last recorded on January 22, 1985. More recently, a significant cold snap occurred in January 2010, when temperatures dropped to the mid-30s across South Florida, causing widespread agricultural damage. The frequency of such cold events has decreased over recent decades, a trend consistent with observed warming in the region. For the specific date of January 15, historical data shows a wide range of minimum temperatures. For example, on January 15, 2024, the low was 66°F, while on January 15, 2018, it was a cooler 57°F. The variability is driven primarily by the passage of continental cold fronts, whose strength and penetration into South Florida are influenced by broader atmospheric patterns like the North Atlantic Oscillation and the position of the jet stream. This historical volatility, within a general warming trend, defines the challenge of predicting a single day's low temperature years in advance.

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