$53.27K
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9
$53.27K
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9
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA. To toggle between Fahre
Prediction markets currently give about a 2 in 5 chance that Miami’s high temperature on March 1 will land between 80 and 81 degrees Fahrenheit. This is the leading forecast among nine specific ranges being traded, but it is not a strong favorite. The market shows real uncertainty, with significant money spread across predictions for both cooler and warmer outcomes.
Two main factors explain the scattered predictions. First, early March in Miami sits on the edge of the dry season. Historical averages for the date are around 78 degrees, but daily highs can easily swing 5 degrees above or below that norm based on immediate weather patterns.
Second, traders are likely weighing short-term forecasts against climate trends. A passing front could keep temperatures in the high 70s, while a sunny, calm day with a warm breeze from the Everglades could push readings into the low 80s. The current market odds suggest no single, confident forecast has emerged from weather models in the days leading up to this event.
The only date that matters is March 1 itself. The official high temperature will be recorded at Miami International Airport and reported by sources like Wunderground. In the final 48 hours before the date, the most reliable short-term weather forecasts from the National Weather Service will become available. These often solidify and can cause last-minute, sharp moves in the market odds as traders react to the final predicted highs.
Markets for short-term weather events are generally quite reliable in aggregating available forecast data, especially in the final 24-48 hours. They effectively combine public weather models with crowd sentiment. However, for a date several days out, the predictions are less about knowing the future and more about reflecting the current spread of possible model outcomes. The main limitation is the inherent unpredictability of local weather, which can be affected by hyper-local conditions not fully captured in broader models.
The Polymarket contract for Miami's March 1 high temperature shows a fragmented and uncertain forecast. The leading outcome, a high between 80-81°F, holds a 39% probability. This indicates the market sees no single outcome as particularly likely. The probabilities are thinly distributed across nine different 2-degree bands, from below 74°F (5%) to above 86°F (8%). With only $53,000 in total volume, this low liquidity means prices are volatile and may not reflect a strong consensus. The market's structure suggests traders are hedging across a wide range of plausible outcomes rather than betting heavily on a specific forecast.
Miami's early March weather is historically variable, which explains the market's flat probability curve. The average high temperature for March 1 at Miami International Airport is approximately 78°F. However, daily records show extremes from a high of 89°F to a low of 49°F. The current leading prediction of 80-81°F aligns closely with the climatological average, representing a safe baseline bet. The significant probability assigned to cooler (74-77°F at 23% combined) and warmer (82-85°F at 22% combined) outcomes reflects uncertainty about specific short-term meteorological drivers, such as the position of a front or cloud cover, which can cause a 5-10 degree swing from the average.
The primary factor that could consolidate probabilities is the release of high-resolution numerical weather model guidance in the days immediately preceding March 1. A model consensus showing a strong cold front pushing into South Florida would shift volume toward the lower temperature bands. Conversely, a forecast for dominant high pressure and clear skies would increase odds for the 84°F+ outcomes. Given the market's low liquidity, a single large, informed bet based on a reliable forecast close to the resolution date could dramatically move prices. The market's broad distribution is typical for long-lead weather contracts, but it will likely collapse toward one or two outcomes as verified forecast data becomes available in the final 48-72 hours.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on forecasting the highest temperature recorded at Miami International Airport on March 1, 2026. The market will resolve based on data from Weather Underground, specifically the maximum temperature reading for that date at the official KMIA weather station. This type of market falls under climate prediction, where participants attempt to forecast specific meteorological outcomes based on historical patterns, seasonal forecasts, and climate trends. Interest in such markets has grown alongside increased public awareness of climate variability and its local impacts. The outcome provides a quantifiable measure of early spring weather conditions in South Florida, a region where temperature extremes can influence tourism, agriculture, and energy demand. Participants analyze factors including El Niño/La Niña conditions, Atlantic sea surface temperatures, and historical temperature distributions for early March to inform their predictions. The market's resolution offers a concrete data point for comparing observed weather against both climatological norms and seasonal outlooks issued by meteorological agencies.
Miami's climate records provide essential context for this prediction. The official recording site for Miami moved from downtown to Miami International Airport in 1937. Since that time, the highest temperature ever recorded in Miami during the entire month of March is 93°F, set on March 29, 1971. For the specific date of March 1, historical data shows considerable variability. Between 1991 and 2020, the average high temperature for March 1 in Miami was 78.5°F, but actual readings have ranged from a chilly 59°F in 1980 to a warm 88°F in 2017. This 29-degree historical range illustrates the significant weather variability possible on this date, influenced by cold fronts from the north or persistent high pressure systems. The long-term trend shows warming. Analysis by NOAA indicates the average temperature for March in South Florida has increased by approximately 2°F over the past 50 years. This warming trend suggests that record-high readings for early March may become more probable over time, though daily weather patterns remain the dominant factor for any single date.
The outcome of this specific temperature forecast has implications beyond the prediction market. For Miami's economy, an unseasonably warm March 1 can extend the peak tourist season, increasing revenue for hospitality and recreation. Conversely, a cooler day might reduce early-season beach traffic. For local agriculture, particularly tropical fruit and vegetable growers in southern Miami-Dade County, a late-season cold snap in early March can cause crop damage, making temperature forecasts critical for protective measures. The recorded temperature also serves as a single data point in assessing local climate trends. As Miami is a coastal city highly vulnerable to sea-level rise and extreme heat, consistent recording of high temperatures helps planners understand the pace of local warming. This data informs infrastructure planning, public health advisories for heat vulnerability, and long-term resilience strategies for a city where millions of residents are affected by changing weather patterns.
As of late 2024, the primary factor for the March 2026 seasonal forecast is the expected state of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). NOAA's Climate Prediction Center indicates a transition from El Niño conditions to ENSO-neutral is likely by spring 2025. The subsequent state for early 2026 remains highly uncertain. Historical data shows El Niño winters in Florida often bring cooler, wetter conditions that can persist into early March, while La Niña winters tend to be warmer and drier. The latest seasonal outlooks for winter 2025-2026 have not yet been issued. Participants are monitoring Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies and long-range model projections for clues about the atmospheric setup that will influence Florida's weather in late February and early March 2026.
Early March in Miami typically features warm and mostly dry conditions as the region transitions toward spring. Average high temperatures are in the upper 70s Fahrenheit, with overnight lows in the mid-60s. While cold fronts can occasionally bring cooler air, they become less frequent and potent as the month progresses.
The official weather observations for Miami are taken at Miami International Airport (Station ID: KMIA). This station is part of the NOAA National Weather Service's Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS). The data is quality-controlled and archived by the National Centers for Environmental Information.
No. According to NOAA records, Miami has never recorded a temperature at or below 32°F during the month of March at the official airport station. The coldest temperature ever recorded in March is 41°F. Freezes are exceptionally rare in South Florida and are confined to the winter months.
Forecast skill decreases significantly beyond 10 days. While seasonal outlooks can predict whether a month will be warmer or cooler than average with some skill, predicting the exact temperature for a specific day like March 1, 2026, is currently impossible. Prediction markets aggregate probabilistic judgments based on climatology and expected patterns.
An urban heat island is a metropolitan area that is significantly warmer than its surrounding rural areas due to human activities and materials like concrete and asphalt. Studies confirm Miami has a heat island effect, which can elevate nighttime temperatures and, under specific weather conditions, contribute to higher daytime readings at the airport station compared to less developed areas.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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| Poly | 39% |
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