$2.25M
1
24
$2.25M
1
24
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect. If multiple individuals announce departures or are remo
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on identifying which member of the Trump administration's cabinet will be the next to depart, either through resignation or removal. The market resolves immediately upon the public announcement of a departure, regardless of the effective date, and will close if no one leaves by December 31, 2026. This topic generates interest because cabinet turnover is a key indicator of administrative stability, policy direction, and internal dynamics. High turnover rates in previous administrations have made personnel changes a frequent subject of political betting and analysis. Observers monitor public statements, policy disagreements, and legal developments to gauge which officials might be vulnerable. The question matters to political strategists, journalists, and investors who track governance risks and potential shifts in federal policy execution. The outcome can signal broader realignments within the executive branch and affect confidence in specific government agencies.
Cabinet turnover during the Trump administration has been historically high. A 2019 study by the Brookings Institution found that 65% of President Trump's initial cabinet had left by the end of his third year, a rate exceeding the five previous presidents. Notable departures included Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, fired via Twitter in March 2018, and Defense Secretary James Mattis, who resigned in December 2018 over policy differences. The frequency of acting officials, rather than Senate-confirmed appointees, also became a hallmark. For example, the Department of Homeland Security had five acting secretaries between 2019 and 2020. This pattern of instability sets a precedent for predicting further departures, especially during a presidential transition period where acting officials are typically replaced. The use of prediction markets for political events gained traction during the 2016 election, with platforms like PredictIt allowing users to trade shares on outcomes ranging from nominations to resignations. Markets have often provided aggregated forecasts that sometimes anticipate official announcements.
Cabinet departures can disrupt government operations and policy implementation. A change in leadership at agencies like Defense, Justice, or Homeland Security can alter regulatory enforcement, national security priorities, and federal contracting. For markets and businesses, stability in these roles reduces uncertainty. Political ramifications are significant. A high-profile resignation can be interpreted as a vote of no confidence, potentially weakening the administration's authority during its final days. It can also trigger succession battles and affect the morale of career civil servants within agencies. For the individuals involved, leaving a cabinet post shapes their political legacy and future career prospects, whether in elected office, lobbying, or the private sector.
As of late 2020, the Trump cabinet includes several acting secretaries whose positions are inherently temporary. The presidential election result has triggered a formal transition process. Incoming administrations traditionally request and receive letters of resignation from all politically appointed positions, including cabinet secretaries. While some officials may leave before January 20, 2021, others might remain in an acting capacity briefly to ensure continuity. No new cabinet departures have been announced since the election, but speculation focuses on officials who may resign before the inauguration to distance themselves or avoid overseeing a transition.
The market resolves on the public announcement that a current member of the Trump Cabinet will leave their position. This includes resignations, firings, or any other termination of their role. The actual effective date of the departure does not matter for resolution.
The market uses the standard definition of the Cabinet, which includes the heads of the 15 executive departments, such as the Secretary of State and Secretary of Defense. It typically does not include cabinet-level officials like the White House Chief of Staff unless specifically defined by the market operator.
The market condition specifies it resolves based on the next individual to leave the 'Trump Cabinet.' If an individual continues to serve in a role considered part of that cabinet entity (e.g., a holdover in an acting capacity) after January 20, 2021, and then departs, that would likely trigger resolution.
Acting secretaries are considered full members of the cabinet for the purposes of this market. Their departure would resolve the market just as a confirmed secretary's would.
Market operators typically use major credible news organizations (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press) or official White House statements to verify departure announcements. Social media announcements from the president or the official themselves are also generally considered valid sources.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
24 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 57% |
| Poly | 12% |
| Poly | 7% |
| Poly | 7% |
| Poly | 3% |
| Poly | 3% |
| Poly | 2% |
| Poly | 2% |
| Poly | 2% |
| Poly | 2% |
| Poly | 1% |
| Poly | 1% |
| Poly | 1% |
| Poly | 1% |
| Poly | 1% |
| Poly | 1% |
| Poly | 1% |
| Poly | 1% |
| Poly | 1% |
| Poly | 1% |
| Poly | 1% |
| Poly | 1% |
| Poly | 1% |
| Poly | 1% |
No related news found
Add this market to your website
<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/-jKOb3" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?"></iframe>