$125.29K
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$125.29K
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5
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the displayed Rotten Tomatoes “All Critics” Tomatometer score for Scream 7 (2026) is at least equal to the specified number at 10:00 AM ET on March 2, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If, for any reason, the resolution data is unavailable at this market's specified end time, the resolution source will be checked until the relevant data is available. This market will resolve to “No” if no data is available by March 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Traders on prediction markets currently give "Scream 7" only a 1% chance of earning a Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer score of 50 or higher. In simple terms, the collective intelligence of these markets sees it as nearly certain the film will be rated "rotten" by critics, with roughly a 99 out of 100 chance it fails to reach that basic threshold.
The extreme pessimism stems from the film's deeply troubled production. The project lost its lead actress, Melissa Barrera, who was fired in late 2023 over her social media posts regarding the Israel-Hamas conflict. Her co-star Jenna Ortega then exited the project, reportedly due to scheduling conflicts. This stripped the new trilogy of its two core protagonists. Director Christopher Landon also left, publicly calling the production "a dream that turned into a nightmare." With no announced director or cast, and a script being rewritten from scratch, the market is essentially betting on a movie that currently exists only as a title. Historically, films with this level of public behind-the-scenes chaos rarely achieve critical success.
The critical score will be locked in on March 2, 2026. The most important signals will come long before that. Watch for the announcement of a new director and casting decisions, which could shift sentiment. The release of a first trailer will be a major test, offering the first concrete look at the film's tone and quality. Any further delays to the currently slated 2026 release date would likely reinforce the current negative outlook.
Prediction markets are generally effective at aggregating available public information, which in this case is almost entirely negative. Their accuracy for film scores can be mixed, as they can overreact to pre-release buzz or scandal. The current 1% probability, however, is less a precise forecast and more a stark reflection of the belief that the project, in its current non-existent state, is critically doomed. The prediction could become more volatile and potentially improve if a respected creative team is attached and generates positive early buzz, but for now, the market sees little path to a fresh rating.
Prediction markets assign a very low probability to Scream 7 achieving a Rotten Tomatoes score of at least 50. On Polymarket, shares for "Yes" are trading at just 1¢, which implies a 1% chance of success. This price indicates the market views a score above 50 as highly unlikely. With $112,000 in total volume across related markets, there is enough liquidity to suggest this is a considered consensus, not just speculative noise.
The market's pessimistic outlook is rooted in the franchise's recent critical trajectory and significant production turmoil. Scream VI (2023) earned a 76% Tomatometer score, but the 2022 reboot scored 60%. The downward trend is a primary concern for traders. More critically, the project has been destabilized by the high-profile exits of lead actress Melissa Barrera and co-star Jenna Ortega. Losing two central figures from the revived series creates major narrative and audience connection challenges that markets believe reviewers will penalize. Production delays and director changes further signal a project in trouble, which historically correlates with poor critical reception.
The odds could shift if Paramount releases a trailer or early footage that receives overwhelmingly positive reactions from critics and fans, demonstrating a cohesive new vision. Casting announcements for a major, well-regarded actor to join the surviving core cast could also boost confidence. However, the window for changing market sentiment is narrowing. The primary risk to the current "No" consensus is that the film delivers a surprisingly tight script and effective direction that wins over critics despite the off-screen drama, but the 1% price shows traders see that as a remote possibility.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market concerns the critical reception of 'Scream 7,' the upcoming 2026 installment in the long-running horror franchise, as measured by the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer. The market resolves based on whether the film's 'All Critics' score meets or exceeds a specified threshold on March 2, 2026. Rotten Tomatoes aggregates reviews from accredited critics, assigning a percentage score that represents the proportion of positive reviews. A high score often correlates with strong audience interest and box office performance, making it a key industry metric. The 'Scream' series, which revitalized the slasher genre in the 1990s, has experienced fluctuating critical fortunes. The market allows participants to speculate on whether the new film will be judged a success by professional reviewers. Interest stems from the franchise's cultural footprint, the commercial importance of review aggregators, and the specific challenges facing this sequel following significant behind-the-scenes turmoil. The outcome will be seen as a barometer for the health of the franchise and the viability of legacy horror series in the modern market.
The 'Scream' franchise began with Wes Craven's 1996 film, which earned a 79% Tomatometer score and redefined horror for a new generation. Critical reception has varied since. 'Scream 2' (1997) achieved an 82% score, while 'Scream 3' (2000) fell to 41%. The series was revived in 2011 with 'Scream 4,' which received a 60% score. After an 11-year hiatus, the franchise was rebooted with 2022's 'Scream,' earning a 76% score and strong box office. Its 2023 sequel, 'Scream VI,' achieved the series' highest Tomatometer at 81%. This upward trend in critical favor for the new era sets a high benchmark for 'Scream 7.' The development of the seventh film has been marked by unprecedented public drama. In November 2023, star Melissa Barrera was fired from the project due to social media posts concerning the Israel-Hamas conflict. Days later, co-star Jenna Ortega exited due to scheduling conflicts with 'Wednesday.' These departures necessitated a complete narrative overhaul, delaying production and resetting audience expectations.
The Rotten Tomatoes score for 'Scream 7' matters because review aggregators have tangible economic impact. A 'Fresh' rating (60% or above) is used extensively in marketing and can influence opening weekend box office performance, which is critical for a film with a reported budget likely between $35-40 million. For the studio, a positive critical reception helps justify the decision to continue the franchise despite its turbulent production and could pave the way for further sequels. Culturally, the score will be interpreted as a verdict on the franchise's ability to survive without several key stars from its recent successful entries and under new creative leadership. A low score could signal audience fatigue with legacy sequels, while a high score would demonstrate the enduring power of the original 'Scream' concept. The outcome also matters for the careers of the involved creatives, particularly the yet-to-be-named director who will helm a project with intense scrutiny.
As of late 2024, 'Scream 7' is in active pre-production following a period of significant instability. Neve Campbell is confirmed to return as Sidney Prescott, and Kevin Williamson has completed a new screenplay. The project is seeking a new director after Christopher Landon's departure. The plot is reported to focus on Sidney's story, a narrative shift necessitated by the exits of Melissa Barrera and Jenna Ortega. Spyglass Media Group and Paramount Pictures are moving forward with the film, targeting a 2026 release, but no official start date for filming has been announced.
The Tomatometer is a percentage score representing the proportion of positive professional critic reviews for a film. A score of 60% or higher is considered 'Fresh,' while below 60% is 'Rotten.' It is an aggregation, not an average star rating.
Christopher Landon was announced as director in August 2023 but exited in December 2023. He stated on social media that it was 'a dream job that turned into a nightmare,' citing the chaotic development process following the firing of lead actress Melissa Barrera.
Yes. Neve Campbell confirmed her return as Sidney Prescott in March 2024. She had not appeared in 'Scream VI' due to a salary dispute but reached an agreement with Spyglass Media for the seventh film.
Melissa Barrera was fired in November 2023. Jenna Ortega exited due to scheduling conflicts. Other cast members from the 2022 and 2023 films, including Jasmin Savoy Brown and Mason Gooding, have not been officially confirmed for 'Scream 7' as of late 2024.
Paramount Pictures has scheduled 'Scream 7' for release in 2026. An exact date has not been set. The film was originally planned for 2025 but was delayed due to the extensive rewrites required after the cast changes.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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