Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Generic congressional ballot on Oct 12, 2026?

Total Volume

$4.70K

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Generic congressional ballot on Oct 12, 2026?

Vol

$4.70K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $4.70K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $4.70K

100%

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9 markets tracked

Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.7 on Oct 12, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.7 on Oct 12, 2026?	Kalshi	30%
Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.5 on Oct 12, 2026?	Kalshi	19%
Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.4 on Oct 12, 2026?	Kalshi	19%
Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.6 on Oct 12, 2026?	Kalshi	17%
Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.8 on Oct 12, 2026?	Kalshi	10%
Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be below 8.4 on Oct 12, 2026?	Kalshi	4%
Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 9.0 on Oct 12, 2026?	Kalshi	3%
Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be above 9.0 on Oct 12, 2026?	Kalshi	3%
Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.9 on Oct 12, 2026?	Kalshi	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

30%

Top Probability

$4.70K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

On Oct 12, 2026 If the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin, X − R, time-weighted, is Y Z at exactly 5:05 PM ET on Oct 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Generic congressional ballot on Oct 12, 2026?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Oct 12, 2026

If the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin, X − R, time-weighted, is Y Z at exactly 5:05 PM ET on Oct 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) is below 8.4% at exactly 5:05 PM ET on Oct 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $4.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be below 8.4 on Oct 12, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $254
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 9.0 on Oct 12, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $2
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.9 on Oct 12, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $19
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.8 on Oct 12, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $3
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.7 on Oct 12, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $644
  DATA: [Yes: 29.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.6 on Oct 12, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $5
  DATA: [Yes: 16.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.5 on Oct 12, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $840
  DATA: [Yes: 18.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.4 on Oct 12, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $2.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 18.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be above 9.0 on Oct 12, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $29
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

Generic congressional ballot on Oct 12, 2026?

On Oct 12, 2026 If the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin, X − R, time-weighted, is Y Z at exactly 5:05 PM ET on Oct 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Volume$4.70K

Markets9

9 of 9

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KALSHI

Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.7 on Oct 12, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 29.5¢No 70.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.7 on Oct 12, 2026?

If the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) is exactly 8.7% at exactly 5:05 PM ET on Oct 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.5 on Oct 12, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 18.5¢No 81.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.5 on Oct 12, 2026?

If the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) is exactly 8.5% at exactly 5:05 PM ET on Oct 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.4 on Oct 12, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 18.5¢No 81.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.4 on Oct 12, 2026?

If the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) is exactly 8.4% at exactly 5:05 PM ET on Oct 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.6 on Oct 12, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 16.5¢No 83.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.6 on Oct 12, 2026?

If the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) is exactly 8.6% at exactly 5:05 PM ET on Oct 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.8 on Oct 12, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 9.5¢No 90.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.8 on Oct 12, 2026?

If the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) is exactly 8.8% at exactly 5:05 PM ET on Oct 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Average Yes Price

11¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/-jnPIg" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Generic congressional ballot on Oct 12, 2026?"></iframe>

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Generic congressional ballot on Oct 12, 2026?

Generic congressional ballot on Oct 12, 2026?

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Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.7 on Oct 12, 2026?

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About This Event

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Events (1)

Generic congressional ballot on Oct 12, 2026?

Markets (9)

Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.7 on Oct 12, 2026?

Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.7 on Oct 12, 2026?

Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.5 on Oct 12, 2026?

Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.5 on Oct 12, 2026?

Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.4 on Oct 12, 2026?

Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.4 on Oct 12, 2026?

Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.6 on Oct 12, 2026?

Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.6 on Oct 12, 2026?

Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.8 on Oct 12, 2026?

Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.8 on Oct 12, 2026?

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Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.7 on Oct 12, 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Generic congressional ballot on Oct 12, 2026?

Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.7 on Oct 12, 2026?

Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.7 on Oct 12, 2026?

Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.5 on Oct 12, 2026?

Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.5 on Oct 12, 2026?

Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.4 on Oct 12, 2026?

Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.4 on Oct 12, 2026?

Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.6 on Oct 12, 2026?

Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.6 on Oct 12, 2026?

Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.8 on Oct 12, 2026?

Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.8 on Oct 12, 2026?

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