This prediction market topic concerns the potential removal of Vladimir Putin from the presidency of Russia before June 30, 2026. It specifically asks whether Putin will resign, be detained, or otherwise lose his position or be prevented from fulfilling his duties within that timeframe. The question taps into widespread speculation about the stability of Putin's long-standing rule, which has been a defining feature of Russian and global politics for over two decades. The market's resolution depends on a definitive change in executive power, not merely political pressure or opposition activity. Interest in this topic has intensified following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, which has led to significant military losses, international isolation, and unprecedented economic sanctions. These pressures have fueled internal debates about Russia's strategic direction and leadership, making questions of political succession and regime stability more urgent for analysts, investors, and policymakers. The market serves as a collective assessment of the risks to Putin's continued rule from various potential catalysts, including health issues, elite factional conflict, public unrest, or external geopolitical shocks.

Historical Context

Vladimir Putin's rise to power began on December 31, 1999, when President Boris Yeltsin resigned, making Putin acting president. He was formally elected president in March 2000. This established a pattern of controlled executive transition. The most notable precedent for a leadership change during Putin's era was the 2008 presidential term limit maneuver, where Putin swapped roles with Dmitry Medvedev, serving as prime minister before returning to the presidency in 2012. This demonstrated a flexible approach to formal rules to maintain power. The last time a Russian/Soviet leader was forcibly removed from office was in 1991, with the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the resignation of Mikhail Gorbachev. Since then, transfers of power have been orchestrated. The 2020 constitutional amendments, approved via a national vote, reset Putin's previous term limits, allowing him to run for two more six-year terms after his current one ends in 2024, legally entrenching his long-term rule. The historical context is one of increasing personalization of power and the systematic weakening of institutions that could facilitate a regular, competitive succession, making any removal before a planned transition an extraordinary event.

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