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Will UnitedHealth Group (UNH) beat quarterly earnings? | PredictPedia

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Event GroupPOLYMARKETFinance

Will UnitedHealth Group (UNH) beat quarterly earnings?

Name: Will UnitedHealth Group (UNH) beat quarterly earnings?
End: 2026-04-21T13:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$412.81

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Will UnitedHealth Group (UNH) beat quarterly earnings?

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Polymarket

markets · $412.81

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markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $412.81

100%

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Will UnitedHealth Group (UNH) beat quarterly earnings?

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Market	Platform	Price
Will UnitedHealth Group (UNH) beat quarterly earnings?	Poly	57%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, April 17, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will UnitedHealth Group (UNH) beat quarterly earnings?
**Category:** Finance | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Apr 21, 2026 (5 days left)
**Time Pressure:** High

**Description:** As of market creation, UnitedHealth Group is estimated to release earnings on April 21, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for UnitedHealth Group’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $6.67 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if UnitedHealth Group reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $6.67 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earn

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"As of market creation, UnitedHealth Group is estimated to release earnings on April 21, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for UnitedHealth Group’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $6.67 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if UnitedHealth Group reports non-GAAP EPS grea"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $413
* **Total Liquidity:** $2.2K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.18)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will UnitedHealth Group (UNH) beat quarterly earnings?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 21, 2026): Vol $413
  DATA: [Yes: 57.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 42.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

4d 9h remaining

Apr 21, 2026 1:00 PM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

57¢

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Will UnitedHealth Group (UNH) beat quarterly earnings?

Will UnitedHealth Group (UNH) beat quarterly earnings?

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Will UnitedHealth Group (UNH) beat quarterly earnings?

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