$229.90K
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$229.90K
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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
In 2026 If X has won Supporting Actress at the 79th BAFTA Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Prediction markets currently give Teyana Taylor roughly a 3 in 5 chance of winning the BAFTA for Best Supporting Actress in 2026. This means traders collectively see her as the most likely winner, but it is far from a sure bet. With a 60% probability, the market suggests she is the frontrunner in a competitive field.
Two main factors are driving these odds. First, Teyana Taylor’s critically acclaimed performance in the upcoming film The Actress has generated significant awards buzz since its festival debut. Early reviews specifically highlight her role as a career-defining turn. Second, the BAFTA voting body has recently shown a pattern of recognizing established performers in music and entertainment who deliver standout dramatic work, a trend that would benefit Taylor’s candidacy.
However, the probability is not higher because the film is scheduled for a late 2025 release. Some traders are cautious, knowing that a crowded awards season or a competitor’s last-minute surge could change the narrative.
The major event is the BAFTA ceremony itself, which is about one day away. The most immediate signal will be the announcement of the winner. In the final hours, shifts in market odds could occur based on reporting from awards insiders or the results of other precursor ceremonies that have just concluded, like the Critics’ Choice Awards.
For major entertainment awards, prediction markets have a mixed but often insightful record. They efficiently aggregate opinions from thousands of participants, including industry observers. They tend to be more accurate as the event gets closer and more information is available. The main limitation here is the inherent unpredictability of awards voting, which can be influenced by campaign dynamics and voter sentiment that are not fully public. A 60% chance one day before the event indicates a real consensus, but the history of upsets means it should not be seen as a forecast.
Prediction markets currently price a 60% probability that Teyana Taylor will win the BAFTA for Best Supporting Actress at the 79th ceremony on February 22, 2026. This price, found on Polymarket, indicates the market views a Taylor win as more likely than not, but with significant uncertainty remaining. On Kalshi, the equivalent contract trades at 58.6%, creating a narrow 1.4% spread. With $215,000 in total volume across platforms, liquidity is sufficient for the market to reflect a meaningful consensus.
Taylor's frontrunner status is primarily based on her critically acclaimed performance in the 2025 film The Architect. Industry tracking suggests the role is precisely the type of transformative, dramatic work that BAFTA voters historically reward in this category. Her main competitor, considered to be British actress Imogen Waterhouse for The Governess, is trading at a distant 22% on Polymarket. This gap reflects a belief that Taylor's performance has broader international appeal and stronger precursor momentum, having already secured a nomination from the Screen Actors Guild. The 60% price, however, stops short of declaring her a lock, acknowledging BAFTA's occasional preference for homegrown talent.
The final odds will be determined by the actual award announcement on February 22. The primary risk to Taylor's position is a potential BAFTA surprise favoring Waterhouse. Such an outcome would align with the award body's history of occasionally using the supporting categories to honor UK performers in a competitive year. A win for Taylor at the preceding SAG Awards on February 8 could solidify her position and push market prices toward 70% or higher. Conversely, a SAG loss would likely cause a major repricing, potentially making Waterhouse the new favorite overnight.
The 1.4% price difference between Polymarket (60%) and Kalshi (58.6%) is narrow but persistent. This minor spread likely exists due to platform-specific liquidity pools and slight variations in trader demographics, rather than a fundamental disagreement on the outcome. The spread is too small to allow for practical arbitrage after accounting for trading fees. Both platforms show a clear consensus on the two-horse race between Taylor and Waterhouse, with all other candidates priced below 10%.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns whether a specific performer, referred to as 'X' for market neutrality, will win the British Academy Film Award (BAFTA) for Best Supporting Actress at the 79th ceremony in 2026. The market resolves to 'Yes' only if X is officially announced as the winner in that category. BAFTA Awards are among the most prestigious honors in the British and international film industry, presented annually by the British Academy of Film and Television Arts. The Supporting Actress category specifically recognizes outstanding performance by an actress in a secondary role. The 79th ceremony will take place in February 2026, honoring films released in the 2025 calendar year. Interest in this market stems from the competitive nature of awards season, where BAFTA recognition often influences and predicts outcomes at other major ceremonies like the Oscars. Speculation about potential nominees and winners begins months in advance, fueled by film festival premieres, critical reviews, and studio campaigns. The identity of 'X' will be determined by the market creator based on early contenders from the 2025 film slate, making this a forward-looking prediction on both artistic merit and the complex dynamics of awards campaigning.
The BAFTA Award for Best Actress in a Supporting Role was first presented in 1968 at the 22nd ceremony. The inaugural winner was Billie Whitelaw for her performance in 'Charlie Bubbles.' For decades, the award typically aligned with the Oscars, with winners like Judi Dench ('Shakespeare in Love,' 1998) and Cate Blanchett ('The Aviator,' 2004) achieving the double. However, the relationship between BAFTA and Oscar winners has become less predictable in recent years. A significant shift occurred in 2020 when BAFTA implemented wide-ranging reforms following criticism over a lack of diversity in its nominations. These changes included introducing a longlisting stage with jury oversight for all categories and mandatory unconscious bias training for voters. The impact was immediate. In 2021, the Supporting Actress nominees were notably more diverse, and the winner, Yuh-Jung Youn for 'Minari,' was the first Korean actor to win a BAFTA. This established a new precedent where BAFTA could diverge from other awards bodies. The 2024 winner, Da'Vine Joy Randolph for 'The Holdovers,' won at both BAFTA and the Oscars, demonstrating that convergence still occurs but is no longer guaranteed. This historical arc shows the award is influenced by both artistic trends and conscious institutional reform.
Winning a BAFTA for Supporting Actress has substantial career implications for the performer. It elevates their industry status, often leading to higher-profile roles and increased salary demands. Historically, a BAFTA win provides significant momentum heading into the final phase of the Oscars campaign, which concludes just two weeks later. For the film's distributors, a win is a powerful marketing tool that can boost box office returns, streaming viewership, and physical media sales, especially in the UK and European markets. On a broader cultural level, the outcome is scrutinized as a barometer of the British and international film industry's values. The choice of winner sends a message about what types of performances and stories the academy considers worthy of celebration. It can highlight emerging talent, validate veteran actors, or recognize work from underrepresented communities. The result also feeds into ongoing debates about diversity in film awards and whether institutional reforms are effecting tangible change in outcomes.
As of late 2024, the field for the 2026 BAFTA Supporting Actress award is completely open. The eligible films are those with a UK release date between January 1 and December 31, 2025. Most major contenders have not yet been released or publicly screened. Early speculation in industry publications like Variety and Screen International is based on announced casting in high-profile 2025 productions from directors like Steve McQueen, Greta Gerwig, and Yorgos Lanthimos. Official campaigning will not begin until films premiere at fall 2025 festivals such as Venice, Telluride, and Toronto. The BAFTA longlists, the first official indicator of contender strength, will be announced in January 2026.
The nominees for the 79th BAFTA Film Awards are scheduled to be announced in mid-January 2026. The exact date is typically confirmed in the preceding autumn.
Voting occurs in three rounds. First, all film voters create longlists. Second, a dedicated chapter jury selects the final nominees from these longlists. Finally, the full BAFTA membership votes on the winner from the nominated slate.
Yes. Eligibility rules require a film to have a theatrical release in the UK, but this can be a limited release. Streaming films like 'The Power of the Dog' and 'Ma Rainey's Black Bottom' have earned acting nominations and wins.
The most recent winner from a straightforward comedic role was Olivia Colman for 'The Favourite' in 2018, though the film is a period dramedy. Pure comedy winners are rare in this category.
BAFTA covers all eligible films released in the UK, including major studio productions. BIFA specifically honors independent British film, typically with lower budgets, and has its own separate categories and voting body.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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Different
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In 2026 If X has won Supporting Actress at the 79th BAFTA Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
The BAFTA Film Awards are presented annually by the British Academy of Film and Television Arts. For the 2026 BAFTA Film Awards, nominations are scheduled for January 27, 2026, and the ceremony for February 22, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed person that wins the Supporting Actress category at the 2026 BAFTA Awards. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed
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