Uber - Request a ride app downloads in November 2026
K 25.8K contracts
1
11
K 25.8K contracts
1
11
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Nov 13, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Above 93 at 98.5%.
Kalshi
- Above 9398.5%
- Above 9695.5%
- Above 97.593%
- Above 9990.5%
- Above 100.590.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 25.8K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
11
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 13, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
This analysis was written from an earlier market snapshot, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed Nov 11, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The Kalshi event asks whether the year-over-year Carbon Arc value for Uber request-a-ride app downloads in November 2026 will be above a stated threshold [1]. The source explains that 100 means downloads matched the same month last year, so 103 represents 3% growth and 97 represents a 3% decline [1]. Each of the eleven markets in this snapshot uses a different threshold, from 93 to 117 [1]. Each market is a separate contract, so the thresholds should be read as distinct questions rather than steps on one scale.
The rules say determination will use finalized Carbon Arc values recorded at 11:59 p.m. ET on the seventh calendar day after the covered month ends [1]. The source's example is that August values are recorded on September 7th [1]. The rules also say the market will close and expire early if the economic data is released [1]. The listed end time for every market is Dec 15, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC [1]. That listed time is not the same as the rule's recording time, so readers should not treat the listed close as the resolution date.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at Nov 11, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC, and this package retrieved the source at Nov 11, 2026, 11:22 AM UTC [1]. These are observations from that window, not live or executable quotes. Within this snapshot, Yes prices range from 0.945 for the 93 and 96 thresholds to 0.14 for the 117 threshold [1]. Higher thresholds carry lower Yes prices, and the 106.5 threshold is near even at 0.485 Yes and 0.515 No [1]. Treat these figures as the market's quoted price levels at observation time, not as verified probabilities.
All eleven saved markets for this single Kalshi event are included, and the sample is not marked partial [1]. The sample warning still notes that this does not establish the provider lists every possible outcome [1]. No other platform's prices are included, so no cross-platform comparison or averaging is possible. Differing prices between two thresholds reflect different contracts, not an arbitrage opportunity.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why prices sit where they do, and it does not indicate trader counts or trading volume. Volume is not a measure of liquidity here. The package does not include any finalized Carbon Arc value, so the outcome of any threshold is unknown from this evidence. Whether the market closes early depends on an economic data release that the evidence does not date. Readers should check the current contract page before relying on any price or close time.
References
- Kalshi: Uber - Request a ride app downloads in November 2026. Provider data observed Nov 11, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 11, 2026 UTCOverview
The contract in this article is a Kalshi event titled "Uber - Request a ride app downloads in November 2026." It asks whether a monthly index for Uber ride-request app downloads will land above a chosen threshold for November 2026 [1]. The index is not a raw download count. It is a year-over-year measure in which 100 means downloads in the month equaled the same month a year earlier. Values above 100 indicate growth, and values below 100 indicate decline. For example, 103 means 3% growth and 97 means a 3% decline [1]. Each threshold in the event is its own yes or no contract. A Yes contract resolves to Yes if the finalized index value for November 2026 is above the stated threshold [1]. The event lists thresholds from 93 up to 117 in the saved snapshot, so one event covers a range of possible outcomes rather than a single question [1]. Resolution depends on finalized Carbon Arc values rather than preliminary figures. The rules say the determination uses finalized values recorded at 11:59 p.m. ET on the 7th calendar day after the end of the month covered by the market [1]. The rules' example uses August, with values recorded on September 7 [1]. Applying the same rule to November means the finalization point falls seven days after the month ends, which is a rule-based date and not an announced event. The rules also state that the market will close and expire early if the economic data is released [1]. The price snapshot in this article was observed at 2026-11-11T09:00:06Z. Those Yes and No prices are snapshots, not executable quotes, and they should not be read as verified probabilities. In this snapshot the Yes price declines as the threshold rises, which is what one would expect when the bar becomes higher [1]. The saved sample includes all eleven markets for this event, so the thresholds shown are the full saved set for this provider event, though that does not establish that every conceivable threshold is listed.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether Uber ride-request app downloads in November 2026 grow or shrink compared with November 2025, expressed on an index where 100 is no change [1]. Because each threshold is a separate yes or no question, the contract shows how the market prices different levels of year-over-year change. Traders and readers can use it to see whether the platform's listed prices imply the index will exceed a given level, but the prices are only snapshots and the finalized value is what determines resolution [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-11 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does a value of 100 mean on this index?
A value of 100 means Uber ride-request app downloads in the month were equal to the same month last year. Values above 100 indicate growth and values below 100 indicate decline [1].
Which number decides whether a Yes contract resolves to Yes?
A Yes contract resolves to Yes if the finalized Carbon Arc index value for November 2026 is above the threshold in that contract's title [1].
When are the values used for resolution recorded?
The rules say finalized values are recorded at 11:59 p.m. ET on the 7th calendar day after the end of the month covered by the market [1]. That is a rule about timing, not an announced date for a specific event.
Is Kalshi affiliated with Uber?
No. The event rules state that Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the underlying company [1].
Do the prices show the probability that the index will exceed a threshold?
The prices are snapshots from the listing and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities. They reflect the listed Yes and No prices at the time of observation [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
