ChatGPT App downloads in November 2026
K 21.4K contracts
1
12
K 21.4K contracts
1
12
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Nov 13, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Above 61.5 at 98.5%.
Kalshi
- Above 61.598.5%
- Above 54.598.5%
- Above 68.596.5%
- Above 6595.5%
- Above 7294.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 21.4K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
12
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 13, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Snapshot observed Nov 13, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The contract asks whether the Carbon Arc ChatGPT App downloads index for November 2026 will be above a given threshold [1]. The index is year-over-year: "100 means ChatGPT App downloads was equal to the same month last year. Values above 100 indicate growth and values below 100 indicate decline" [1]. Each threshold market therefore resolves on the index level, not on a raw download count.
Resolution uses finalized values, not the first reported figure. The source states that "determination will resolve on finalized Carbon Arc values recorded at 11:59 p.m. ET on the 7th calendar day after the end of the month covered by this market" [1]. For November 2026, that recording point is 11:59 p.m. ET on December 7, 2026, as the rule's own example describes the method [1].
The market data lists an end date of Dec 15, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC for every threshold [1]. The source excerpt separately says "Listed end time: not supplied," so the reason for this listed date is not explained in the evidence. The excerpt also says the market "will close and expire early if the economic data is released" [1]. Readers should rely on the contract rules for resolution timing, not on the listed date alone.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at Nov 13, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC, and the record was retrieved at Nov 13, 2026, 7:07 AM UTC [1]. These are historical snapshot values, not live quotes, and they are not executable prices.
Across the 12 thresholds, the Yes price falls as the threshold rises. Yes prices are 0.985 at 54.5 and 61.5, 0.965 at 68.5, 0.955 at 65 and 72, 0.805 at 76, 0.695 at 80, 0.41 at 85, 0.24 at 90.5, 0.115 at 101, 0.04 at 122, and 0.035 at 111.5 [1]. Each threshold is a separate contract, so the ladder shows how quoted prices change across thresholds within one event, not a single forecast distribution.
The sample is complete for this provider event. The coverage record shows 12 total markets and 12 included, with partialSample set to false [1]. This does not establish that the provider lists every possible outcome.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why prices sit where they do, how many traders hold each view, or how liquid each contract is. Volume data is not included. Different thresholds should not be read as an arbitrage opportunity because their prices differ, since they are distinct contracts with distinct rules.
References
- Kalshi: ChatGPT App downloads in November 2026. Provider data observed Nov 13, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 13, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a Kalshi market titled "ChatGPT App downloads in November 2026" [1]. The contract's stated rule is that if the Carbon Arc ChatGPT App downloads value for November 2026 is above a threshold, the market resolves to Yes [1]. Each threshold in the event is its own market, so the same underlying index can produce several contracts with different cutoffs [1]. The measure is an index that compares each month with the same month of the prior year. A value of 100 means ChatGPT App downloads were equal to the same month last year. Values above 100 indicate growth, and values below 100 indicate decline. The rule gives examples: 103 means 3% growth, and 97 means 3% decline [1]. Because the index is relative to a prior year, a threshold near 100 asks whether downloads grew or shrank, while higher thresholds ask for stronger growth [1]. The contract uses finalized values rather than early readings. Under the rule, finalized Carbon Arc values are recorded at 11:59 p.m. ET on the 7th calendar day after the end of the month covered. The source gives August as an example, with values recorded on September 7 [1]. Applying that same rule to November 2026 points to a recording time of 11:59 p.m. ET on December 7, 2026. The saved market records also carry a December 15, 2026 date field, but that is a data field in the market record and not an announced event date. The contract rules are what govern resolution [1]. The rules also state that the market will close and expire early if the economic data is released [1]. Kalshi states that it is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or otherwise officially connected with the underlying company, and that trademarks and brand names belong to their respective owners [1].
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the Carbon Arc index for ChatGPT App downloads in November 2026 is above a specified threshold. Because the index is year-over-year, the question is about relative change from November 2025 rather than a raw download count [1]. Each threshold market asks a separate yes or no question about that same measure [1]. The resolution timing, which relies on finalized values recorded a week after the month ends, means the outcome depends on data that is set after the period closes, not on values seen during the month [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-11 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the index in this contract measure?
The index measures year-over-year change in ChatGPT App downloads. A value of 100 means downloads matched the same month last year, values above 100 indicate growth, and values below 100 indicate decline [1].
When is the outcome of a November 2026 market determined?
The rule uses finalized Carbon Arc values recorded at 11:59 p.m. ET on the 7th calendar day after the end of the month covered by the market. For example, August values are recorded on September 7 [1]. Applying the same rule to November 2026 gives December 7, 2026 at 11:59 p.m. ET [1].
Does a Yes price of 0.985 mean there is a 98.5% chance of resolution?
No. The prices shown are snapshots from the provider and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities. They reflect the market prices at the time they were recorded, not a confirmed likelihood of the outcome.
Is this contract related to the GPT-4 model?
The contract is about the Carbon Arc index of ChatGPT App downloads [1]. The supplied Wikipedia entry describes GPT-4 as a large language model developed by OpenAI [2], but the contract rules do not connect the index to that model.
Is Kalshi connected to OpenAI?
Kalshi states that it is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the underlying company [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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