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GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

Event GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform2 EventsElections

Georgia Democratic Governor nominee?

Name: Georgia Democratic Governor nominee?
End: 2026-05-19T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$246.20K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

Georgia Democratic Governor nominee?

Vol

$246.20K

Events

Markets

Polymarket Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $246.20K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

1.0%avg

max 2.4%

Arbitrage

of 6 cross-platform

Calculate

Volume DistributionTotal: $246.20K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

10 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Will Keisha Lance Bottoms win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?

Arbitrage

No data available

Cross-Platform Comparison(6)

Market	Polymarket	Kalshi	Diff
Will Keisha Lance Bottoms win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?ARB	80%	78%	2%
Will Mike Thurmond win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?ARB	16%	18%	2%
Will Jason Esteves win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?	5%	5%	0%
Will Geoff Duncan win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?	1%	2%	1%
Will Ruwa Romman win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?	0%	0%	0%
Will Olujimi Brown win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?	0%	0%	0%

Single-Platform Markets(4)

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

80%

Top Probability

$246.20K

Volume

Markets

2.8%

Price Gap

About This Event

In 2026 If X wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Georgia Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes. This market will close after X wins the party's nomination.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Georgia Democratic Governor nominee?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If X wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Georgia Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes. This market will close after X wins the party's nomination.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Georgia, scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Georgia Gubernatorial Democratic Pr"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $246.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $87.7K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 2.81)
* **Platform Split:** Polymarket (7 mkts) vs Kalshi (9 mkts)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Geoff Duncan win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 19, 2026): Vol $43.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.9% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.4% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Ruwa Romman win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 19, 2026): Vol $60.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Olujimi Brown win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 19, 2026): Vol $14.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Jason Esteves win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 19, 2026): Vol $30.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.2% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Keisha Lance Bottoms win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 19, 2026): Vol $52.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 79.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 20.5% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 77.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 22.5% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 2.0% spread between platforms.

### 6. Will Mike Thurmond win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 19, 2026): Vol $32.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 15.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.4% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 18.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.0% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 2.4% spread between platforms.

### 7. Will Stacey Abrams be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Georgia?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Lucy McBath be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Georgia?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Jason Carter be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Georgia?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Derrick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 19, 2026): Vol $12.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Rules & Resolution

Differs

Rules

Different

Timing

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KALSHIElections

Georgia Democratic Governor nominee?

In 2026 If X wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Georgia Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes. This market will close after X wins the party's nomination.

Volume$0.00

Markets9

POLYMARKETPolitics

Georgia Governor Democratic Primary Winner

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Georgia, scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Georgia Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Georgia Democratic Party; however, an ove

Volume$246.20K

Markets7

10 of 10

Sort:

Arbitrage Opportunity: 2.0% difference

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will Keisha Lance Bottoms win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average78.5%

Polymarket+2.0%

79.5%

Kalshi

77.5%

Difference:2.0% Arbitrage!

Polymarket higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 79.5¢No 20.5¢

KKalshi

Yes 77.5¢No 22.5¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will Keisha Lance Bottoms win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?

Will Keisha Lance Bottoms be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Georgia?

If Keisha Lance Bottoms wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Georgia Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Early close condition: This market will close after Keisha Lance Bottoms wins the party's nomination.

Arbitrage Opportunity: 2.4% difference

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will Mike Thurmond win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average16.8%

Polymarket

15.6%

Kalshi+2.4%

18.0%

Difference:2.4% Arbitrage!

Kalshi higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 15.6¢No 84.4¢

KKalshi

Yes 18.0¢No 82.0¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will Mike Thurmond win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?

Will Michael Thurmond be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Georgia?

If Michael Thurmond wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Georgia Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Early close condition: This market will close after Michael Thurmond wins the party's nomination.

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will Jason Esteves win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average4.9%

Polymarket

4.8%

Kalshi+0.3%

5.1%

Difference:0.3%

Kalshi higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 4.8¢No 95.2¢

KKalshi

Yes 5.1¢No 95.0¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will Jason Esteves win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?

Will Jason Esteves be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Georgia?

If Jason Esteves wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Georgia Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Early close condition: This market will close after Jason Esteves wins the party's nomination.

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will Geoff Duncan win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average1.4%

Polymarket

1.1%

Kalshi+0.6%

1.7%

Difference:0.6%

Kalshi higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 1.1¢No 98.9¢

KKalshi

Yes 1.7¢No 98.4¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will Geoff Duncan win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?

Will Geoff Duncan be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Georgia?

If Geoff Duncan wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Georgia Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Early close condition: This market will close after Geoff Duncan wins the party's nomination.

KALSHI

Will Stacey Abrams be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Georgia?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Stacey Abrams be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Georgia?

If Stacey Abrams wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Georgia Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Early close condition: This market will close after Stacey Abrams wins the party's nomination.

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

17¢

Polymarket

17¢

Kalshi

2¢ price gap

Arbitrage Opps

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/-sF6i-" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Georgia Democratic Governor nominee?"></iframe>

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Georgia Democratic Governor nominee?

Georgia Democratic Governor nominee?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Keisha Lance Bottoms win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Rules & Resolution

Events (2)

Georgia Democratic Governor nominee?

Georgia Governor Democratic Primary Winner

Markets (6)

Will Keisha Lance Bottoms win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?

Will Keisha Lance Bottoms win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?

Will Keisha Lance Bottoms be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Georgia?

Will Mike Thurmond win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?

Will Mike Thurmond win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?

Will Michael Thurmond be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Georgia?

Will Jason Esteves win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?

Will Jason Esteves win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?

Will Jason Esteves be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Georgia?

Will Geoff Duncan win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?

Will Geoff Duncan win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?

Will Geoff Duncan be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Georgia?

Will Stacey Abrams be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Georgia?

Will Stacey Abrams be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Georgia?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Market Insights

Platform Breakdown

Event Comparison

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Trade This Market

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Keisha Lance Bottoms win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Rules & Resolution

Georgia Democratic Governor nominee?

Georgia Governor Democratic Primary Winner

Will Keisha Lance Bottoms win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?

Will Keisha Lance Bottoms win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?

Will Keisha Lance Bottoms be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Georgia?

Will Mike Thurmond win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?

Will Mike Thurmond win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?

Will Michael Thurmond be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Georgia?

Will Jason Esteves win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?

Will Jason Esteves win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?

Will Jason Esteves be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Georgia?

Will Geoff Duncan win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?

Will Geoff Duncan win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?

Will Geoff Duncan be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Georgia?

Will Stacey Abrams be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Georgia?

Will Stacey Abrams be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Georgia?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Platform Breakdown

Event Comparison

Share

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