$589.03
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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for March 31 at 9:00PM ET: If the Kraken win, the market will resolve to "Kraken". If the Oilers win, the market will resolve to "Oilers". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be a
Prediction markets currently give the Edmonton Oilers a 57% chance to beat the Seattle Kraken in their March 31st game. This means traders collectively see a slight edge for the Oilers, roughly a 3 in 5 chance of winning. It is essentially viewed as a coin flip, but one that lands on Edmonton's side more often than not. The market shows low trading volume, indicating this is a niche event without major speculative interest.
The odds lean toward Edmonton for a few clear reasons. First, the Oilers are one of the top teams in the NHL this season, led by Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, who are among the league's highest scorers. They have consistently been a strong offensive team. Second, while Seattle has been competitive, they are in a fight for a playoff spot and have been less dominant overall this season. Historical matchups also play a role. The Oilers have generally had the upper hand against the Kraken in recent seasons, which traders likely consider. The game is in Edmonton, giving the Oilers home-ice advantage, which is a small but real factor in hockey.
The main event is the game itself on Sunday, March 31st. The only thing that could change the market's view before then is significant news, like a key player being ruled out due to injury. Watch for team announcements about player health, especially for star players on either side. Once the puck drops, the market will resolve based on the final score, including any overtime or a shootout.
For regular season NHL games, prediction markets tend to be fairly accurate. They aggregate the knowledge of many fans and bettors who follow team performance, injuries, and schedules. However, hockey is a high-variance sport where any team can win on a given night, so a 57% probability still leaves a very good chance for an upset. The low trading volume on this specific market means the price could be more easily swayed by a few traders, making it slightly less robust than a heavily traded market. Treat this as an informed collective guess, not a sure thing.
The prediction market currently prices an Edmonton Oilers victory at 57 cents, implying a 57% probability they defeat the Seattle Kraken on March 31. A 57% chance indicates the market views Edmonton as a clear but moderate favorite. The "Kraken win" share trades at 43 cents. Total trading volume is negligible, showing minimal capital commitment to these odds. This low liquidity means prices could shift dramatically with even a small new bet.
The odds reflect Edmonton's superior position in the NHL standings and their potent offense. The Oilers, led by Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, consistently rank among the league's highest-scoring teams. Their power play efficiency is a documented strength, often deciding close games. Seattle, while structured defensively, has struggled with offensive consistency this season. Historical matchups this year likely inform the market, and Edmonton has probably secured wins in previous meetings. Home-ice advantage for this game, if applicable, would be another concrete factor baked into the price.
Injury reports released before puck drop are the primary catalyst for price movement. A key absence from either team's top line or starting goaltender would immediately reshape the odds. Edmonton's odds are vulnerable to their defensive performance, which has been inconsistent. A single early goal against or penalty trouble could neutralize their offensive edge. For Seattle, their path to an upset relies on goaltending and converting limited scoring chances. Market sentiment may also shift based on each team's performance in their game immediately prior to this matchup.
This contract is trading exclusively on Polymarket. The lack of a comparable market on Kalshi or other platforms eliminates arbitrage opportunities and means the 57% probability is the sole market-derived forecast available. The thin volume advises caution, as the current price may not fully reflect all available information.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market concerns the outcome of a National Hockey League regular season game between the Seattle Kraken and the Edmonton Oilers, scheduled for March 31 at 9:00 PM Eastern Time. The market will resolve based on the official game result, including any overtime or shootout. If the Kraken win, the market resolves to 'Kraken.' If the Oilers win, it resolves to 'Oilers.' A postponed game keeps the market open until completion, while a canceled game with no makeup results in a 50-50 split. This specific matchup is a Pacific Division contest with implications for playoff seeding and positioning. The Oilers, led by Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, are perennial Stanley Cup contenders. The Kraken, a third-year expansion team, are building their identity and seeking consistency. The game is part of the NHL's 82-game regular season schedule, where every point matters in the tight Western Conference playoff race. Interest stems from the contrasting team profiles: Edmonton's high-powered offense versus Seattle's structured defensive system. Bettors and fans analyze factors like recent form, head-to-head history, injuries, and goaltending matchups to predict the outcome. The game will be televised nationally in the United States on ESPN+ and Hulu, and in Canada on Sportsnet.
The Seattle Kraken entered the NHL as an expansion team for the 2021-22 season. Their inaugural season was challenging, finishing with a 27-49-6 record. The 2022-23 season marked a dramatic turnaround, as the Kraken set an NHL record for the most players on one team to score at least 20 goals in a season (7) and reached the second round of the playoffs. The Edmonton Oilers have a storied history, winning five Stanley Cups in the 1980s with Wayne Gretzky and Mark Messier. After a decade of struggles, the team drafted Connor McDavid first overall in 2015, ushering in a new era of contention. The Oilers have reached the Western Conference Final in two of the last three seasons (2022, 2024). The head-to-head history between these teams is brief but notable. In their first-ever meeting on October 13, 2021, the Oilers defeated the Kraken 6-3. The Kraken earned their first franchise playoff series victory by defeating the Oilers in seven games during the 2023 Western Conference Second Round, a significant upset. The regular season series has been competitive, with each team winning games on home ice in recent matchups.
For the Oilers, every regular season game is about securing home-ice advantage throughout the playoffs. With championship aspirations, dropping points to non-playoff teams can be costly in a competitive Western Conference. A loss could impact seeding and force a more difficult first-round matchup. For the Kraken, games against elite opponents like Edmonton are measuring sticks for their development. A win demonstrates they can compete with the league's best and keeps faint playoff hopes alive. It also builds confidence for a young core looking to establish a winning culture. Beyond the standings, the game has significant financial implications. Local television ratings, merchandise sales, and arena attendance are influenced by team performance and star power. A high-profile matchup featuring McDavid draws national attention, boosting the NHL's visibility and advertising revenue. For the city of Seattle, a successful Kraken team reinforces the viability of the NHL in a non-traditional market and stimulates local business around Climate Pledge Arena.
As of late March 2024, the Edmonton Oilers are securely in a playoff position, battling for the top spot in the Pacific Division. They are among the hottest teams in the league over the previous three months. The Seattle Kraken are on the fringe of the playoff race, several points out of a Wild Card spot with time running out in the season. Both teams are dealing with standard late-season injuries. Key players like the Oilers' Evander Kane and the Kraken's Andre Burakovsky have missed recent games but could return by March 31. The latest head-to-head meeting prior to this game was a 4-2 Oilers victory in Seattle on February 10, 2024.
The game is scheduled for national broadcast in the United States on ESPN+ and Hulu. In Canada, the game will be televised on Sportsnet. Local regional sports networks may also carry the broadcast depending on the market.
The Seattle Kraken won the last playoff series, defeating the Edmonton Oilers in seven games during the 2023 NHL playoffs. This victory was the first playoff series win in Kraken franchise history.
In regular season games through the 2023-24 season, Connor McDavid has averaged well over a point per game against Seattle. Exact totals are updated by the NHL's official statistics database, but he has consistently been a dominant force in the matchup.
The game is scheduled to be played at Rogers Place in Edmonton, Alberta. This gives the Edmonton Oilers the home-ice advantage for this contest.
The market resolves based on the official game winner. If the game is decided by a shootout, the team that wins the shootout is the game winner. The market will resolve to that team's name, whether it is the Kraken or the Oilers.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
6 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 62% |
| Poly | 61% |
| Poly | 55% |
| Poly | 51% |
| Poly | 42% |
| Poly | 39% |
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