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GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

Event GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform2 EventsPolitics

Kentucky Democratic Senate Primary Winner

Name: Kentucky Democratic Senate Primary Winner
End: 2026-05-19T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$30.40K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

Kentucky Democratic Senate Primary Winner

Vol

$30.40K

Events

Markets

Polymarket Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $30.40K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.6%avg

max 1.0%

Price gaps

of 4 cross-platform

Calculate

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Volume DistributionTotal: $30.40K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

9 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Needs review

This pair needs a current review of its rules, outcomes and deadlines.

Will Charles Booker be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky?

No data available

Cross-Platform Comparison(4)

Market	Polymarket	Kalshi	Diff
Will Charles Booker be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky? Needs review	87%	86%	1%
Will Amy McGrath be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky? Needs review	13%	13%	1%
Will Pamela Stevenson be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky? Needs review	0%	1%	1%
Will Jared Randall be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky? Needs review	1%	1%	0%

Single-Platform Markets(5)

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

87%

Top Probability

$30.40K

Volume

Markets

7.4%

Price Gap

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Kentucky. If no 2026 Kentucky Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Kentucky Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Wednesday, October 14, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Kentucky Democratic Senate nominee?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If X wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Senate Kentucky Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after X wins the party's nomination. This market will close after X wins the party's nomination.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Kentucky.

If no 2026 Kentucky Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results fr"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $30.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $44.4K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.68)
* **Platform Split:** Polymarket (8 mkts) vs Kalshi (5 mkts)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Jared Randall be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 19, 2026): Vol $5.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Pamela Stevenson be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 19, 2026): Vol $3.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.8% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Amy McGrath be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 19, 2026): Vol $5.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 13.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.0% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Charles Booker be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 19, 2026): Vol $8.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 86.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 13.5% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 85.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 14.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Rocky Adkinds be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Kentucky?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Joel Willett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 19, 2026): Vol $1.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Logan Forsythe be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 19, 2026): Vol $2.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Dale Romans be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 19, 2026): Vol $1.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Vincent Thompson be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 19, 2026): Vol $1.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Rules & Resolution

Differs

Saved matching review

Needs review: 4 pairs

A saved event match does not establish identical settlement. Pair reviews appear with each price comparison.

KALSHIElections

Kentucky Democratic Senate nominee?

In 2026 If X wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Senate Kentucky Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after X wins the party's nomination. This market will close after X wins the party's nomination.

Volume$0.00

Markets5

POLYMARKETPolitics

Kentucky Democratic Senate Primary Winner

Volume$30.40K

Markets8

9 of 9

Sort:

Needs review

This pair needs a current review of its rules, outcomes and deadlines.

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will Charles Booker be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average86.0%

Polymarket+1.0 pp

86.5%

Kalshi

85.5%

Difference:1.0 pp

Polymarket higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 86.5¢No 13.5¢

KKalshi

Yes 85.5¢No 14.5¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will Charles Booker be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky?

Will Charles Booker be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Kentucky?

If Charles Booker wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Senate Kentucky Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Charles Booker wins the party's nomination.

Needs review

This pair needs a current review of its rules, outcomes and deadlines.

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will Amy McGrath be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average12.8%

Polymarket+0.5 pp

13.0%

Kalshi

12.5%

Difference:0.5 pp

Polymarket higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 13.0¢No 87.0¢

KKalshi

Yes 12.5¢No 87.5¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will Amy McGrath be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky?

Will Amy McGrath be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Kentucky?

If Amy McGrath wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Senate Kentucky Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Amy McGrath wins the party's nomination.

Needs review

This pair needs a current review of its rules, outcomes and deadlines.

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will Pamela Stevenson be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average0.8%

Polymarket

0.4%

Kalshi+0.9 pp

1.3%

Difference:0.9 pp

Kalshi higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 0.4¢No 99.6¢

KKalshi

Yes 1.3¢No 98.8¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will Pamela Stevenson be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky?

Will Pamela Stevenson be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Kentucky?

If Pamela Stevenson wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Senate Kentucky Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Pamela Stevenson wins the party's nomination.

Needs review

This pair needs a current review of its rules, outcomes and deadlines.

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will Jared Randall be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average0.5%

Polymarket+0.1 pp

0.6%

Kalshi

0.5%

Difference:0.1 pp

Polymarket higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 0.6¢No 99.4¢

KKalshi

Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will Jared Randall be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky?

Will Jared Randall be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Kentucky?

If Jared Randall wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Senate Kentucky Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Jared Randall wins the party's nomination.

KALSHI

Will Rocky Adkinds be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Kentucky?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Rocky Adkinds be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Kentucky?

If Rocky Adkins wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Senate Kentucky Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Rocky Adkinds wins the party's nomination.

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Discussion

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Next Market Deadline

Calculating time remaining…

Nov 03, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

Saved price pairs

Largest saved gap: 1.0 percentage points.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/-xTZyj" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Kentucky Democratic Senate Primary Winner"></iframe>

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Kentucky Democratic Senate Primary Winner

Kentucky Democratic Senate Primary Winner

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Charles Booker be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Rules & Resolution

Saved matching review

Events (2)

Kentucky Democratic Senate nominee?

Kentucky Democratic Senate Primary Winner

Markets (4)

Will Charles Booker be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky?

Will Charles Booker be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky?

Will Charles Booker be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Kentucky?

Will Amy McGrath be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky?

Will Amy McGrath be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky?

Will Amy McGrath be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Kentucky?

Will Pamela Stevenson be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky?

Will Pamela Stevenson be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky?

Will Pamela Stevenson be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Kentucky?

Will Jared Randall be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky?

Will Jared Randall be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky?

Will Jared Randall be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Kentucky?

Will Rocky Adkinds be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Kentucky?

Will Rocky Adkinds be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Kentucky?

Related News & Context

Discussion

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Charles Booker be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Rules & Resolution

Saved matching review

Kentucky Democratic Senate nominee?

Kentucky Democratic Senate Primary Winner

Will Charles Booker be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky?

Will Charles Booker be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky?

Will Charles Booker be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Kentucky?

Will Amy McGrath be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky?

Will Amy McGrath be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky?

Will Amy McGrath be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Kentucky?

Will Pamela Stevenson be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky?

Will Pamela Stevenson be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky?

Will Pamela Stevenson be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Kentucky?

Will Jared Randall be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky?

Will Jared Randall be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky?

Will Jared Randall be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Kentucky?

Will Rocky Adkinds be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Kentucky?

Will Rocky Adkinds be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Kentucky?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Next Market Deadline

Platform Breakdown

Event Comparison

Share

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