This prediction market addresses whether the United States will enact federal legislation before January 1, 2027, that prohibits social media use for children under the age of 18, or any lower age threshold, without exceptions for parental consent. The resolution criteria are specific: a qualifying bill must pass the full chamber of either the House of Representatives or the Senate and be signed into law by the President or become law through a veto override. A bill that allows parents to consent to their child's social media use would not satisfy the market's conditions. The topic emerges from a growing national debate over the mental health and safety of minors online, fueled by research linking social media to increased rates of anxiety, depression, and cyberbullying. Recent legislative efforts at both state and federal levels, such as age verification laws and lawsuits against major platforms, have intensified discussions about a potential nationwide ban. This market captures a significant regulatory pivot point, reflecting heightened political pressure to act on child online safety, making it a focal point for observers of technology policy, public health, and congressional action.

Historical Context

The modern debate over children and social media has roots in the 1998 Children's Online Privacy Protection Act (COPPA), which restricted data collection from children under 13. For years, this served as the primary federal guardrail, leading many platforms to set 13 as a de facto minimum age. However, widespread non-compliance and the evolution of social media's societal role exposed COPPA's limitations. The 2021 leak of internal Facebook documents by whistleblower Frances Haugen was a pivotal moment, revealing the company's own research on Instagram's negative impact on teen girls' mental health. This catalyzed congressional hearings and a new wave of legislative proposals. At the state level, pioneering laws like California's Age-Appropriate Design Code Act (2022) and Utah's Social Media Regulation Act (2023), which requires parental consent for users under 18, created a patchwork of regulations. These state actions increased pressure for a uniform federal standard, setting the stage for the current debate over a potential national ban. The historical arc shows a shift from focusing solely on privacy to directly addressing platform design and access as matters of child welfare.

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