Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Will SCOTUS bar successive habeas claims that could have been raised earlier?

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Will SCOTUS bar successive habeas claims that could have been raised earlier?

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Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Eric Guerrero in Guerrero v. Johnson

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Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Eric Guerrero in Guerrero v. Johnson	Kalshi	69%

AI Analysis

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69%

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About This Event

Before 2028 If the Supreme Court, in Guerrero v. Johnson, rules a habeas claim does not rely on a previously unavailable new constitutional rule when the petitioner could have asserted a claim based on that rule in an earlier federal habeas petition, then the market resolves to Yes. The Payout Criterion for the Contract encompasses the Expiration Values that the Supreme Court of the United States has ruled that a habeas claim does not rely on a “new rule of constitutional law, made retroactive

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will SCOTUS bar successive habeas claims that could have been raised earlier?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before 2028

If the Supreme Court, in Guerrero v. Johnson, rules a habeas claim does not rely on a previously unavailable new constitutional rule when the petitioner could have asserted a claim based on that rule in an earlier federal habeas petition, then the market resolves to Yes. The Payout Criterion for the Contract encompasses the Expiration Values that the Supreme Court of the United States has ruled that a habeas claim does not rely on a “new rule of constitutional law, made retroactive 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Supreme Court, in Guerrero v. Johnson, rules a habeas claim does not rely on a previously unavailable new constitutional rule when the petitioner could have asserted a claim based on that rule in an earlier federal habeas petition, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Payout "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Eric Guerrero in Guerrero v. Johnson
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 68.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 31.5% (0.0%)]

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## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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