Events
GroupPOLYMARKET
Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics
Fetterman out by December 31, 2026?
Total Volume
$0.00
Events
1
Markets
1
Fetterman out by December 31, 2026?
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Polymarket
1
markets · $0.00
Kalshi
0
markets · $0.00
Price Spread
0.0%avg
max 0.0%
Arbitrage
0
of 0 cross-platform
Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph
1 market tracked
Fetterman out by December 31, 2026?
No data available
Single-Platform Markets(1)
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 10% |
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
10%
Top Probability
$0.00
Volume
1
Markets
1
Platforms
About This Event
This market will resolve to “Yes” if John Fetterman ceases to be U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of John Fetterman's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from John
What Prediction Markets Are Forecasting
Prediction markets currently give about a 10% chance that John Fetterman will leave his Senate seat before the end of 2026. In simple terms, traders see this as an unlikely outcome, estimating roughly a 1 in 10 probability. This suggests a strong consensus that Fetterman will remain Pennsylvania's junior senator through at least the next two years.
Why the Market Sees It This Way
Two main factors explain the low probability. First, Fetterman is only halfway through his six-year term, which runs until January 2029. Mid-term Senate resignations are rare without a clear personal or political crisis. Second, since his hospitalization for clinical depression in early 2023, Fetterman has returned to a full public schedule and has been an active, vocal senator. There is no visible health or political pressure currently suggesting he would step down.
Historically, senators typically serve out their terms unless they retire voluntarily at the end, seek higher office, or face extraordinary circumstances. Fetterman has not indicated any desire to leave early, and his recent political activity aligns with someone planning to stay.
Key Dates and Events to Watch
The main date is the market's resolution deadline of December 31, 2026. Any official statement from Fetterman or his office about his future plans would be the primary signal. While no specific event is scheduled that would force a decision, observers might watch for changes in his public appearances or health disclosures. The 2026 midterm elections could also generate speculation about other political roles, though Fetterman's current term extends beyond that cycle.
How Reliable Are These Predictions?
Markets are generally reliable for forecasting straightforward, binary events like a resignation, where the outcome is clear and based on official sources. Their track record on political exits is decent, as they aggregate many viewpoints about a public figure's actions. However, the low 10% probability also reflects the inherent difficulty of predicting personal decisions far in advance. The biggest limitation is that they can't foresee sudden, unpredictable events like a health emergency or personal scandal, which are by nature rare and unexpected.
Current Market Outlook
Prediction markets assign a low probability to Senator John Fetterman leaving office before the end of 2026. On Polymarket, the "Yes" share trades at 10¢, implying just a 10% chance. This price indicates the market views a vacancy as very unlikely within this timeframe. The overwhelming consensus expects Fetterman to complete his current Senate term, which runs through January 2029.
Key Factors Driving the Odds
Three primary realities suppress the odds. First, Fetterman is a first-term senator who won a costly, high-profile 2022 election. Voluntary resignation would cede a critical Democratic seat in a swing state, an almost unthinkable political move barring extreme circumstances. Second, while his 2023 hospitalization for clinical depression raised health questions, his return to duty and subsequent public activity have stabilized those concerns. Third, the mechanism for involuntary removal is remote. A Senate expulsion requires a two-thirds vote, an action reserved for severe misconduct and historically rare.
The 10% price likely accounts for a small residual risk of a health-related departure or an unforeseen scandal, but it is largely a reflection of stable incumbency.
What Could Change These Odds
The market's low probability could shift with new, unambiguous information about Fetterman's health or a formal ethics investigation. A serious medical event leading to prolonged absence would cause the "Yes" price to spike. Similarly, credible allegations of legal or ethical violations that prompt a Senate Ethics Committee inquiry would increase perceived risk. However, the political calendar itself is a stabilizing force. Any potential Democratic successor would be wary of triggering a special election in Pennsylvania, a state with a Democratic governor who would appoint a temporary replacement. This appointment power reduces partisan incentive for resignation calls unless the seat's hold is absolutely secure.
Cross-Platform Analysis
This contract is trading exclusively on Polymarket. The absence of a comparable market on platforms like Kalshi suggests the topic is seen as a niche political query rather than a major event with broad betting interest. The single-platform liquidity and low probability contribute to a stable, low-volatility price.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.