Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Who will be Premier of Victoria after the 2026 election?

Total Volume

$2.64K

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Who will be Premier of Victoria after the 2026 election?

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$2.64K

Events

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $2.64K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $2.64K

100%

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5 markets tracked

Will it be confirmed that Jess Wilson is the first person to serve as Premier of Victoria after the caretaker period for the 2026 Victorian state election ends?

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Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will it be confirmed that Jess Wilson is the first person to serve as Premier of Victoria after the caretaker period for the 2026 Victorian state election ends?	Kalshi	71%
Will it be confirmed that Ben Carroll is the first person to serve as Premier of Victoria after the caretaker period for the 2026 Victorian state election ends?	Kalshi	15%
Will it be confirmed that Warren Pickering is the first person to serve as Premier of Victoria after the caretaker period for the 2026 Victorian state election ends?	Kalshi	4%
Will it be confirmed that Ellen Sandell is the first person to serve as Premier of Victoria after the caretaker period for the 2026 Victorian state election ends?	Kalshi	4%
Will it be confirmed that Danny O'Brien is the first person to serve as Premier of Victoria after the caretaker period for the 2026 Victorian state election ends?	Kalshi	4%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

71%

Top Probability

$2.64K

Volume

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About This Event

Before Jan 1, 2027 If X is the first person to serve as Premier of Victoria after the caretaker period for the 2026 Victorian state election ends before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. This must be confirmed, verified, or established as factual by at least one Source Agency. The qualifying person is the person serving as Premier of Victoria when the caretaker period following the 2026 Victorian state election ends. If the government changes, this is the incoming Premier sworn in b

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Who will be Premier of Victoria after the 2026 election?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Jan 1, 2027

If X is the first person to serve as Premier of Victoria after the caretaker period for the 2026 Victorian state election ends before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. This must be confirmed, verified, or established as factual by at least one Source Agency. The qualifying person is the person serving as Premier of Victoria when the caretaker period following the 2026 Victorian state election ends. If the government changes, this is the incoming Premier sworn in b

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Warren Pickering is the first person to serve as Premier of Victoria after the caretaker period for the 2026 Victorian state election ends before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This must be confirmed, verified, or established as factual by at least one Source Agenc"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $2.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will it be confirmed that Warren Pickering is the first person to serve as Premier of Victoria after the caretaker period for the 2026 Victorian state election ends?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $695
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will it be confirmed that Jess Wilson is the first person to serve as Premier of Victoria after the caretaker period for the 2026 Victorian state election ends?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 71.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 29.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will it be confirmed that Ellen Sandell is the first person to serve as Premier of Victoria after the caretaker period for the 2026 Victorian state election ends?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $492
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will it be confirmed that Danny O'Brien is the first person to serve as Premier of Victoria after the caretaker period for the 2026 Victorian state election ends?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will it be confirmed that Ben Carroll is the first person to serve as Premier of Victoria after the caretaker period for the 2026 Victorian state election ends?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 15.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Who will be Premier of Victoria after the 2026 election?

Volume$2.64K

Markets5

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KALSHI

Will it be confirmed that Jess Wilson is the first person to serve as Premier of Victoria after the caretaker period for the 2026 Victorian state election ends?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 71.0¢No 29.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will it be confirmed that Jess Wilson is the first person to serve as Premier of Victoria after the caretaker period for the 2026 Victorian state election ends?

If Jess Wilson is the first person to serve as Premier of Victoria after the caretaker period for the 2026 Victorian state election ends before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This must be confirmed, verified, or established as factual by at least one Source Agency. T

KALSHI

Will it be confirmed that Ben Carroll is the first person to serve as Premier of Victoria after the caretaker period for the 2026 Victorian state election ends?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 15.0¢No 85.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will it be confirmed that Ben Carroll is the first person to serve as Premier of Victoria after the caretaker period for the 2026 Victorian state election ends?

If Ben Carroll is the first person to serve as Premier of Victoria after the caretaker period for the 2026 Victorian state election ends before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This must be confirmed, verified, or established as factual by at least one Source Agency. T

KALSHI

Will it be confirmed that Warren Pickering is the first person to serve as Premier of Victoria after the caretaker period for the 2026 Victorian state election ends?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 4.0¢No 96.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will it be confirmed that Warren Pickering is the first person to serve as Premier of Victoria after the caretaker period for the 2026 Victorian state election ends?

If Warren Pickering is the first person to serve as Premier of Victoria after the caretaker period for the 2026 Victorian state election ends before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This must be confirmed, verified, or established as factual by at least one Source Agenc

KALSHI

Will it be confirmed that Ellen Sandell is the first person to serve as Premier of Victoria after the caretaker period for the 2026 Victorian state election ends?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 4.0¢No 96.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will it be confirmed that Ellen Sandell is the first person to serve as Premier of Victoria after the caretaker period for the 2026 Victorian state election ends?

If Ellen Sandell is the first person to serve as Premier of Victoria after the caretaker period for the 2026 Victorian state election ends before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This must be confirmed, verified, or established as factual by at least one Source Agency.

KALSHI

Will it be confirmed that Danny O'Brien is the first person to serve as Premier of Victoria after the caretaker period for the 2026 Victorian state election ends?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 4.0¢No 96.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will it be confirmed that Danny O'Brien is the first person to serve as Premier of Victoria after the caretaker period for the 2026 Victorian state election ends?

If Danny O'Brien is the first person to serve as Premier of Victoria after the caretaker period for the 2026 Victorian state election ends before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This must be confirmed, verified, or established as factual by at least one Source Agency.

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/05OEBq" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Who will be Premier of Victoria after the 2026 election?"></iframe>

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Who will be Premier of Victoria after the 2026 election?

Who will be Premier of Victoria after the 2026 election?

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Will it be confirmed that Jess Wilson is the first person to serve as Premier of Victoria after the caretaker period for the 2026 Victorian state election ends?

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About This Event

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Educational Context

Events (1)

Who will be Premier of Victoria after the 2026 election?

Markets (5)

Will it be confirmed that Jess Wilson is the first person to serve as Premier of Victoria after the caretaker period for the 2026 Victorian state election ends?

Will it be confirmed that Jess Wilson is the first person to serve as Premier of Victoria after the caretaker period for the 2026 Victorian state election ends?

Will it be confirmed that Ben Carroll is the first person to serve as Premier of Victoria after the caretaker period for the 2026 Victorian state election ends?

Will it be confirmed that Ben Carroll is the first person to serve as Premier of Victoria after the caretaker period for the 2026 Victorian state election ends?

Will it be confirmed that Warren Pickering is the first person to serve as Premier of Victoria after the caretaker period for the 2026 Victorian state election ends?

Will it be confirmed that Warren Pickering is the first person to serve as Premier of Victoria after the caretaker period for the 2026 Victorian state election ends?

Will it be confirmed that Ellen Sandell is the first person to serve as Premier of Victoria after the caretaker period for the 2026 Victorian state election ends?

Will it be confirmed that Ellen Sandell is the first person to serve as Premier of Victoria after the caretaker period for the 2026 Victorian state election ends?

Will it be confirmed that Danny O'Brien is the first person to serve as Premier of Victoria after the caretaker period for the 2026 Victorian state election ends?

Will it be confirmed that Danny O'Brien is the first person to serve as Premier of Victoria after the caretaker period for the 2026 Victorian state election ends?

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Will it be confirmed that Jess Wilson is the first person to serve as Premier of Victoria after the caretaker period for the 2026 Victorian state election ends?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Who will be Premier of Victoria after the 2026 election?

Will it be confirmed that Jess Wilson is the first person to serve as Premier of Victoria after the caretaker period for the 2026 Victorian state election ends?

Will it be confirmed that Jess Wilson is the first person to serve as Premier of Victoria after the caretaker period for the 2026 Victorian state election ends?

Will it be confirmed that Ben Carroll is the first person to serve as Premier of Victoria after the caretaker period for the 2026 Victorian state election ends?

Will it be confirmed that Ben Carroll is the first person to serve as Premier of Victoria after the caretaker period for the 2026 Victorian state election ends?

Will it be confirmed that Warren Pickering is the first person to serve as Premier of Victoria after the caretaker period for the 2026 Victorian state election ends?

Will it be confirmed that Warren Pickering is the first person to serve as Premier of Victoria after the caretaker period for the 2026 Victorian state election ends?

Will it be confirmed that Ellen Sandell is the first person to serve as Premier of Victoria after the caretaker period for the 2026 Victorian state election ends?

Will it be confirmed that Ellen Sandell is the first person to serve as Premier of Victoria after the caretaker period for the 2026 Victorian state election ends?

Will it be confirmed that Danny O'Brien is the first person to serve as Premier of Victoria after the caretaker period for the 2026 Victorian state election ends?

Will it be confirmed that Danny O'Brien is the first person to serve as Premier of Victoria after the caretaker period for the 2026 Victorian state election ends?

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