Name: Sept-Nov Unemployment Rate - U.K.
End: 2026-01-20T00:00:00.000Z

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Sept-Nov Unemployment Rate - U.K. | PredictPedia

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Polymarket

markets · $216.95

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $216.95

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

6 markets tracked

Will the U.K.'s September–November 2025 unemployment rate be ≤4.9%?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the U.K.'s September–November 2025 unemployment rate be ≤4.9%?	Poly	36%
Will the U.K.'s September–November 2025 unemployment rate be 5.1%?	Poly	35%
Will the U.K.'s September–November 2025 unemployment rate be 5.0%?	Poly	25%
Will the U.K.'s September–November 2025 unemployment rate be 5.2%?	Poly	22%
Will the U.K.'s September–November 2025 unemployment rate be ≥5.4%?	Poly	7%
Will the U.K.'s September–November 2025 unemployment rate be 5.3%?	Poly	5%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

36%

Top Probability

$216.95

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (aged 16+) reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in the Labour Force Survey for September to November 2025. The resolution source for this market is the 'Employment in the UK' release, published by the ONS every month at https://www.ons.gov.uk/. The next data release is currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisio

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, January 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Sept-Nov Unemployment Rate - U.K.
**Category:** Economy | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 20, 2026 (4 days left)
**Time Pressure:** High

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (aged 16+) reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in the Labour Force Survey for September to November 2025.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Employment in the UK' release, published by the ONS every month at https://www.ons.gov.uk/.

The next data release is currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisio

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (aged 16+) reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in the Labour Force Survey for September to November 2025.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Employment in the UK' release, published by the ON"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $217
* **Total Liquidity:** $1.7K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.13)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the U.K.'s September–November 2025 unemployment rate be ≤4.9%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 20, 2026): Vol $21
  DATA: [Yes: 35.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the U.K.'s September–November 2025 unemployment rate be 5.0%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 20, 2026): Vol $17
  DATA: [Yes: 24.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the U.K.'s September–November 2025 unemployment rate be 5.1%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 20, 2026): Vol $12
  DATA: [Yes: 35.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 65.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the U.K.'s September–November 2025 unemployment rate be 5.2%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 20, 2026): Vol $27
  DATA: [Yes: 21.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the U.K.'s September–November 2025 unemployment rate be 5.3%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 20, 2026): Vol $16
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the U.K.'s September–November 2025 unemployment rate be ≥5.4%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 20, 2026): Vol $123
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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