Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETWorld

Spain General Election Winner

Name: Spain General Election Winner
End: 2026-11-30T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$94.84K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Spain General Election Winner

Vol

$94.84K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $94.84K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $94.84K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

2 markets tracked

Will PP win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
Will PP win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Poly	85%
Will PSOE win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Poly	16%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

85%

Top Probability

$94.84K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Legislative elections to elect the 350 members of the Congress of Deputies of Spain are scheduled to take place on November 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Congress of Deputies of Spain as a result of this election. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Spain General Election Winner
**Category:** World | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 30, 2026 (50 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** Legislative elections to elect the 350 members of the Congress of Deputies of Spain are scheduled to take place on November 29, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Congress of Deputies of Spain as a result of this election.

If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Legislative elections to elect the 350 members of the Congress of Deputies of Spain are scheduled to take place on November 29, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Congress of Deputies of Spain as a result of this election.

"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $94.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $153.5K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.62)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will PSOE win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 30, 2026): Vol $50.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will PP win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 30, 2026): Vol $44.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 84.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 15.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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