Name: Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?
End: 2026-10-31T00:00:00.000Z

PredictPedia

Markets Wiki

Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair? | PredictPedia

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $47.17M

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $47.17M

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

9 markets tracked

Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Poly	99%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Poly	0%
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Poly	0%
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Poly	0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Poly	0%
Will Jerome Powell be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Poly	0%
Will Stephen Miran be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Poly	0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Poly	0%
Will Rick Reider be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

99%

Top Probability

$47.17M

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve ha

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, May 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 31, 2026 (169 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve.

Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.

If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve ha

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve.

Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $47.17M
* **Total Liquidity:** $2.57M
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 18.37)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 31, 2026): Vol $12.28M
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 31, 2026): Vol $17.43M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 31, 2026): Vol $1.91M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 31, 2026): Vol $2.07M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Jerome Powell be confirmed as Fed Chair?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 31, 2026): Vol $2.33M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Stephen Miran be confirmed as Fed Chair?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 31, 2026): Vol $1.55M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 31, 2026): Vol $4.62M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 31, 2026): Vol $3.01M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Rick Reider be confirmed as Fed Chair?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 31, 2026): Vol $1.99M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics