What Prediction Markets Are Forecasting

Prediction markets give this deal only a 5% chance of happening. This means traders see roughly a 1 in 20 possibility that the US and Denmark will sign any formal agreement about Greenland by the March 31 deadline. The market is expressing very low confidence that a deal will be completed in time.

Why the Market Sees It This Way

The low probability is tied to the history of this idea and current political realities. The topic gained attention in 2019 when then-President Donald Trump publicly confirmed he had discussed the idea of the US purchasing Greenland. The Danish government immediately and firmly rejected the concept, calling it "absurd." This created a significant diplomatic rift.

Since then, the underlying situation has not changed. Greenland is an autonomous territory of the Kingdom of Denmark, and its government has repeatedly stated it is not for sale. There is no visible, active negotiation between the US and Denmark on any major agreement concerning Greenland's sovereignty, resources, or security arrangements that would meet the market's criteria. The lack of any recent, serious diplomatic movement toward a deal is the main reason for the pessimistic forecast.

Key Dates and Events to Watch

The primary date is the market's resolution deadline of March 31, 2026. For the odds to shift dramatically, we would likely need an official, unexpected announcement from the White House, the Danish government, or the Greenlandic authorities. Watch for any joint statements or scheduled high-level meetings between US and Danish officials specifically mentioning Greenland. Without such a concrete signal in the next few weeks, the current low probability is likely to hold.

How Reliable Are These Predictions?

Markets are generally reliable at aggregating known information about political processes, especially when a clear "no" is the strong default position. In this case, the overwhelming public stance of the involved governments makes a sudden deal appear very unlikely. However, prediction markets can be less reliable for forecasting unexpected, discretionary actions by political leaders, which are by nature hard to predict. The 5% chance essentially accounts for the small possibility of a surprise announcement that contradicts all recent diplomatic signals.