This prediction market topic concerns the possibility of the United States and Denmark signing an international agreement related to Greenland by March 31, 2026. The market resolves to 'Yes' if any formal deal, treaty, or agreement is signed between the two nations concerning Greenland, regardless of its specific subject matter. This could include agreements on sovereignty, security cooperation, governance, or access to natural resources. The topic gained significant public attention in 2019 when then-President Donald Trump publicly confirmed his interest in purchasing Greenland, an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark. While that specific proposal was swiftly rejected by Danish leadership, it opened a sustained diplomatic dialogue about Greenland's strategic importance, particularly in the Arctic region. Interest in this market stems from ongoing geopolitical shifts, with the Arctic becoming a focal point for great power competition due to climate change opening new shipping routes and access to untapped resources. The question reflects whether these strategic interests will culminate in a concrete bilateral agreement within the specified timeframe.

Historical Context

The United States' interest in Greenland is long-standing. In 1946, President Harry S. Truman offered Denmark $100 million in gold for the island, a proposal Denmark rejected. The strategic importance was cemented during the Cold War with the 1951 Defense of Greenland Agreement, which allowed the U.S. to establish Thule Air Base in northwest Greenland, a critical early-warning radar site that remains the U.S.'s northernmost military base. Greenland gained home rule from Denmark in 1979 and further self-government in 2009, which transferred control over natural resources like minerals and hydrocarbons to the local government in Nuuk. The 2019 episode was not an isolated historical curiosity but a revival of a persistent geopolitical theme. Historically, any transfer of sovereignty has been a non-starter for Denmark, which remains constitutionally responsible for Greenland's foreign and security policy. However, agreements on specific issues like resource development or enhanced security cooperation have precedents.

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