This prediction market focuses on whether measurable precipitation will occur in New York City on January 16, 2026, specifically at the Central Park weather station, which serves as the city's official climatological observation site. The market resolves to 'Yes' if the recorded precipitation exceeds zero inches, including trace amounts (T) or record-setting precipitation (R) that are strictly greater than zero. This type of weather prediction market allows participants to trade contracts based on their assessment of future meteorological conditions, blending climatological data with financial speculation. The market will close and expire at the earlier of two times: the first 10:00 AM Eastern Time after the observation period or according to its predetermined expiration protocol. Interest in such markets stems from their utility for hedging weather-related risks, testing forecasting models, and providing a collective intelligence assessment of future weather events that can complement traditional meteorological predictions. These markets have gained attention from agricultural planners, event organizers, insurance companies, and climate researchers who seek probabilistic assessments of specific weather outcomes beyond standard forecasts.

Historical Context

Central Park has served as New York City's official weather observation site since 1869, providing one of the longest continuous urban climate records in the United States. The station's historical data reveals that January is typically New York's second-coldest month with average precipitation of 3.65 inches, though this includes both rain and melted snow equivalent. On January 16 specifically, historical records show precipitation occurring approximately 35% of the time based on data from 1991-2020, with measurable precipitation (greater than 0.01 inches) occurring about 25% of January 16ths. The most significant January 16 precipitation event occurred in 1978 when 1.96 inches of rain fell, while numerous January 16ths have recorded trace amounts or no precipitation. Winter precipitation patterns in New York City have shown increased variability in recent decades, with some research suggesting climate change may be altering the frequency and intensity of winter precipitation events in the Northeast. The historical baseline for January precipitation at Central Park is 3.65 inches based on the 1991-2020 climate normal period, though individual days show considerable variation from this monthly average.

Frequently Asked Questions