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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?

Name: Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?
End: 2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$661.82

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?

Vol

$661.82

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $661.82

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $661.82

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?	Poly	58%
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?	Poly	26%
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?	Poly	10%
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?	Poly	10%
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?	Poly	9%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

58%

Top Probability

$661.82

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 31, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Transit calls "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $662
* **Total Liquidity:** $79.9K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.01)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $40
  DATA: [Yes: 26.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $40
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $260
  DATA: [Yes: 58.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 42.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $40
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $280
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics