Market snapshot: Oct 13, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

Event GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform2 EventsPolitics

When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?

Name: When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
End: 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$24.32M

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?

Vol

$24.32M

Events

Markets

Polymarket Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $14.74M

Kalshi

markets · $9.57M

Price Spread

5.0%avg

max 5.0%

Price gaps

of 1 cross-platform

Calculate

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Volume DistributionTotal: $24.32M

61%

39%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

17 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Related contracts

The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before January 1, 2027?"; listed deadline 2027-04-01T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?"; listed deadline 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

Reviewed: Tue, 13 Oct 2026 13:34:59 GMT

Review notes

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 1 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-04-01T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Price difference

No data available

Cross-Platform Comparison(1)

Market	Polymarket	Kalshi	Diff
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?DIFF Related contracts	14%	9%	5%

Single-Platform Markets(16)

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

68%

Top Probability

$24.32M

Volume

Markets

19.9%

Price Gap

About This Event

Transit calls If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before X 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the condition is met. This market will close and expire early if the condition is met.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Transit calls

If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before X 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the condition is met. This market will close and expire early if the condition is met.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before January 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the condition is met."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $24.32M
* **Total Liquidity:** $594.8K
* **Activity Level:** Very High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 40.88)
* **Platform Split:** Polymarket (1 mkts) vs Kalshi (17 mkts)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before January 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 1, 2027): Vol $3.20M
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $14.74M
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 5.0% spread between platforms.

### 2. Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before December 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 29, 2028): Vol $3.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before November 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 30, 2028): Vol $7.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 44.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 55.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before October 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 30, 2027): Vol $869
  DATA: [Yes: 43.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 56.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before September 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 30, 2027): Vol $449
  DATA: [Yes: 42.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 58.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before August 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 30, 2027): Vol $1.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 40.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 60.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before June 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 30, 2027): Vol $225
  DATA: [Yes: 32.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 67.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before May 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 30, 2027): Vol $314
  DATA: [Yes: 27.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before March 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2027): Vol $439
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before February 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 2, 2027): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before January 1, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 1, 2029): Vol $40.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 67.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 32.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before July 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 29, 2028): Vol $33.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 63.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 36.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before January 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 31, 2028): Vol $63.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 54.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 45.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before December 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $1.34M
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before November 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 30, 2027): Vol $2.42M
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before July 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 29, 2027): Vol $1.63M
  DATA: [Yes: 38.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 61.5% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before April 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 30, 2027): Vol $832.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 24.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Rules & Resolution

Differs

Saved matching review

Related contracts: 1 pair

A saved event match does not establish identical settlement. Pair reviews appear with each price comparison.

Review notes

Saved notes may describe earlier contract terms. Use the pair status above and current provider rules.

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

KALSHIPolitics

When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?

Volume$9.57M

Markets17

POLYMARKETPolitics

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-

Volume$14.74M

Markets1

17 of 17

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KALSHI

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before January 1, 2029?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 67.5¢No 32.5¢

KALSHITech

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before January 1, 2029?

If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before January 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the condition is met.

KALSHI

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before July 1, 2028?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 63.5¢No 36.5¢

KALSHITech

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before July 1, 2028?

If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before July 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the condition is met.

KALSHI

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before January 1, 2028?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 54.5¢No 45.5¢

KALSHITech

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before January 1, 2028?

If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before January 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the condition is met.

KALSHI

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before December 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 50.0¢No 50.0¢

KALSHITech

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before December 1, 2027?

If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before December 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the condition is met.

KALSHI

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before November 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 44.5¢No 55.5¢

KALSHITech

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before November 1, 2027?

If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before November 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the condition is met.

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Next Market Deadline

Calculating time remaining…

Jan 01, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

Saved price pairs

Largest saved gap: 5.0 percentage points.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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