Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Victoria parliamentary election: 3rd place?

Total Volume

$18.11K

Events

Markets

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Victoria parliamentary election: 3rd place?

Vol

$18.11K

Events

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $18.11K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

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Volume DistributionTotal: $18.11K

100%

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6 markets tracked

Will One Nation hold the third-most seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly after the 2026 state election?

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Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will One Nation hold the third-most seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly after the 2026 state election?	Kalshi	65%
Will the Nationals hold the third-most seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly after the 2026 state election?	Kalshi	12%
Will the Greens hold the third-most seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly after the 2026 state election?	Kalshi	11%
Will Labor hold the third-most seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly after the 2026 state election?	Kalshi	11%
Will Liberal hold the third-most seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly after the 2026 state election?	Kalshi	2%
Will Victorian Socialists hold the third-most seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly after the 2026 state election?	Kalshi	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

65%

Top Probability

$18.11K

Volume

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About This Event

in 2026 If the third-most total seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly are held X following the 2026 Victorian state election, then the market resolves to Yes. Rankings are determined by total seat count after the election, including seats not contested. X seat is won when the candidate is declared elected by the electoral authority and either the challenge period has expired, legal challenges are resolved, or the member has taken their seat. Party affiliation is based on the party under w

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Victoria parliamentary election: 3rd place?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** in 2026

If the third-most total seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly are held X following the 2026 Victorian state election, then the market resolves to Yes. Rankings are determined by total seat count after the election, including seats not contested. X seat is won when the candidate is declared elected by the electoral authority and either the challenge period has expired, legal challenges are resolved, or the member has taken their seat. Party affiliation is based on the party under w

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the third-most total seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly are held by Victorian Socialists following the 2026 Victorian state election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Rankings are determined by total seat count after the election, including seats not contested. A seat is"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $18.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Victorian Socialists hold the third-most seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly after the 2026 state election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 5, 2026): Vol $3.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will One Nation hold the third-most seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly after the 2026 state election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 5, 2026): Vol $3.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 64.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 35.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the Nationals hold the third-most seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly after the 2026 state election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 5, 2026): Vol $5.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Liberal hold the third-most seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly after the 2026 state election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 5, 2026): Vol $2.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the Greens hold the third-most seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly after the 2026 state election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 5, 2026): Vol $3.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Labor hold the third-most seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly after the 2026 state election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 5, 2026): Vol $203
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Victoria parliamentary election: 3rd place?

Volume$18.11K

Markets6

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KALSHI

Will One Nation hold the third-most seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly after the 2026 state election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 64.5¢No 35.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will One Nation hold the third-most seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly after the 2026 state election?

If the third-most total seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly are held by One Nation following the 2026 Victorian state election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Rankings are determined by total seat count after the election, including seats not contested. A seat is won when

KALSHI

Will the Nationals hold the third-most seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly after the 2026 state election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 12.0¢No 88.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Nationals hold the third-most seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly after the 2026 state election?

If the third-most total seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly are held by the Nationals following the 2026 Victorian state election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Rankings are determined by total seat count after the election, including seats not contested. A seat is won wh

KALSHI

Will the Greens hold the third-most seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly after the 2026 state election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 11.0¢No 89.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Greens hold the third-most seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly after the 2026 state election?

If the third-most total seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly are held by the Greens following the 2026 Victorian state election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Rankings are determined by total seat count after the election, including seats not contested. A seat is won when

KALSHI

Will Labor hold the third-most seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly after the 2026 state election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 11.0¢No 89.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Labor hold the third-most seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly after the 2026 state election?

If the third-most total seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly are held by Labor following the 2026 Victorian state election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Rankings are determined by total seat count after the election, including seats not contested. A seat is won when the c

KALSHI

Will Liberal hold the third-most seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly after the 2026 state election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 1.5¢No 98.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Liberal hold the third-most seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly after the 2026 state election?

If the third-most total seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly are held by Liberal following the 2026 Victorian state election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Rankings are determined by total seat count after the election, including seats not contested. A seat is won when the

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/0FobBM" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Victoria parliamentary election: 3rd place?"></iframe>

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Victoria parliamentary election: 3rd place?

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Will One Nation hold the third-most seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly after the 2026 state election?

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Educational Context

Events (1)

Victoria parliamentary election: 3rd place?

Markets (6)

Will One Nation hold the third-most seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly after the 2026 state election?

Will One Nation hold the third-most seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly after the 2026 state election?

Will the Nationals hold the third-most seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly after the 2026 state election?

Will the Nationals hold the third-most seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly after the 2026 state election?

Will the Greens hold the third-most seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly after the 2026 state election?

Will the Greens hold the third-most seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly after the 2026 state election?

Will Labor hold the third-most seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly after the 2026 state election?

Will Labor hold the third-most seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly after the 2026 state election?

Will Liberal hold the third-most seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly after the 2026 state election?

Will Liberal hold the third-most seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly after the 2026 state election?

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Will One Nation hold the third-most seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly after the 2026 state election?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Victoria parliamentary election: 3rd place?

Will One Nation hold the third-most seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly after the 2026 state election?

Will One Nation hold the third-most seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly after the 2026 state election?

Will the Nationals hold the third-most seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly after the 2026 state election?

Will the Nationals hold the third-most seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly after the 2026 state election?

Will the Greens hold the third-most seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly after the 2026 state election?

Will the Greens hold the third-most seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly after the 2026 state election?

Will Labor hold the third-most seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly after the 2026 state election?

Will Labor hold the third-most seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly after the 2026 state election?

Will Liberal hold the third-most seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly after the 2026 state election?

Will Liberal hold the third-most seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly after the 2026 state election?

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