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Events
GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?

2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?
Vol

PM $159.39M · K 1.45M contracts

|
Events

13

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Markets

287

Polymarket vs Kalshi

Snapshot from

As of Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, Marine Le Pen is priced at 43.3% on Polymarket and 46.5% on Kalshi.

Outcome (Yes price)PolymarketKalshiGap
Marine Le PenSame question, fine print differs43.3%46.5%3.2 pts
Édouard PhilippeSame question, fine print differs17.5%15.5%2.0 pts
David LisnardSame question, fine print differs15.3%13.5%1.8 pts
Jean-Luc MélenchonSame question, fine print differs11.5%8.3%3.1 pts
Raphaël GlucksmannSame question, fine print differs3.5%5.5%2.0 pts
François HollandeSame question, fine print differs2.5%4.5%2.0 pts
Christine LagardeSame question, fine print differs0.3%2.5%2.3 pts
Jordan BardellaSame question, fine print differs1.1%1.4%0.4 pts

Yes prices for outcomes an automated review found to ask the same question on both platforms. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $159.39M · K 1.45M contracts

Reported volume · provider units

287

Saved contracts

90

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC

About This Event

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.

Snapshot observed 2026-10-13T15:00:05.608Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The event asks who will be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election. Each candidate market resolves "Yes" if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round, and "No" otherwise [1]. The source describes the election as "currently expected to be held in April 2027" and says the French Constitutional Council is "expected to publish the official list" before the vote [1]. The evidence gives no publication date for that list, so the resolution timing is not established here.

Reading the snapshot

The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-13T15:00:05.608Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-13T15:22:16.604Z [1]. These are snapshots from the observation time, not current quotes, executable prices, or verified probabilities.

Within the saved sample, Jean-Luc Mélenchon's Yes price was 0.94 [1], Marine Le Pen's was 0.92 [1], and Dominique de Villepin's was 0.305 [1]. Nathalie Arthaud's Yes price was 0.875, but her listed end time is 2027-04-18T23:59:00.000Z, earlier than the 2027-07-01T03:59:00.000Z end time shown for most other included markets [1]. Because close times and wording can differ, prices should not be compared as identical bets without checking each listed end time.

The sample is partial. For this provider event, 12 of 46 markets are included, selected by highest finite Yes price and then volume [1]. Omitted candidates are not shown to have lower prices, and the included rows are not the full field. The evidence contains no cross-platform data, so no combined average is offered. The snapshot does not report volume, so it cannot indicate liquidity or the number of traders.

What remains uncertain

The supplied excerpt for the event ends mid-sentence in its explanation of the case where no candidate list is published, so the full fallback rule is not shown [1]. The evidence does not explain what drove any price, how many traders hold each view, or whether any recent developments have occurred. It also does not confirm the final candidate list or when it will be published.

References

  1. Polymarket: 2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?. Provider data observed 2026-10-13T15:00:05.608Z.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Saved Oct 13, 2026 UTC

This saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.

Overview

The 2027 French presidential election is scheduled for 18 April 2027, with a second round on 2 May if no candidate secures a majority in the first round [2]. The election may be held earlier if the presidency falls vacant before then [2]. A separate Wikipedia page on opinion polling for the race also states that the first round is scheduled for 18 April 2027 [3]. These are reference pages, so they describe the scheduled timetable rather than report on recent developments. The Polymarket event asks which individuals will appear on the ballot. It describes the election as currently expected to be held in April 2027, and it says the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates for the first round before the vote [1]. Each named-individual contract resolves Yes if that person is included on the official candidate list for the first round, and No otherwise [1]. The price shown for each contract is a recorded snapshot from the observation time, not an executable quote or a verified probability [1]. The contracts in this article are also a partial sample. The saved event contains 46 markets, and 12 are included here, chosen by highest Yes price and then by volume [1]. The included names therefore do not represent the full field of possible candidates, and nothing can be inferred about omitted names from their absence.

Why It Matters

The contracts measure whether a named individual will appear on the official list of candidates for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election [1]. This is a narrower question than who will win the election. A Yes outcome depends on inclusion in the official first-round list, and the source states that the Constitutional Council is expected to publish that list before the election [1]. The first round is scheduled for 18 April 2027, with a possible second round on 2 May [2].

Snapshot context

The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-13 at 15:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]

Frequently Asked Questions

What must happen for a contract to resolve Yes?

The named individual must be included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election [1]. If that does not happen, the contract resolves No [1].

When will the official candidate list be published?

The source says the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list before the election, but it does not give a specific publication date [1].

Why do the contract end times differ?

Most contracts list an end time of 1 July 2027 at 03:59 UTC, while the contract for Nathalie Arthaud lists 18 April 2027 at 23:59 UTC [1]. These are listed contract end times, not announced event dates, and the first round is scheduled for 18 April 2027 [2].

Does a contract price show the chance that a candidate will run?

No. The price is a snapshot recorded at the observation time, and it is not an executable quote or a verified probability [1].

Was this helpful?
Saved Oct 13, 2026 UTC

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

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Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

30

Same-question pairs

90

Largest saved gap: 9.0 percentage points.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.