Name: March Inflation US - Annual
End: 2026-04-10T00:00:00.000Z

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March Inflation US - Annual | PredictPedia

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9 markets tracked

Will annual inflation increase by ≥2.8% in March?

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Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will annual inflation increase by ≥2.8% in March?	Poly	100%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.2% in March?	Poly	0%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.4% in March?	Poly	0%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% in March?	Poly	0%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.5% in March?	Poly	0%
Will annual inflation increase by ≤2.0% in March?	Poly	0%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.3% in March?	Poly	0%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.1% in March?	Poly	0%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% in March?	Poly	0%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, April 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** March Inflation US - Annual
**Category:** Economy | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Apr 10, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending March 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.ht

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending March 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $3.33M
* **Total Liquidity:** $2.25M
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.48)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will annual inflation increase by 2.2% in March?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 10, 2026): Vol $106.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will annual inflation increase by 2.4% in March?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 10, 2026): Vol $207.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% in March?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 10, 2026): Vol $187.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will annual inflation increase by ≥2.8% in March?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 10, 2026): Vol $1.90M
  DATA: [Yes: 100.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.1% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will annual inflation increase by 2.5% in March?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 10, 2026): Vol $204.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will annual inflation increase by ≤2.0% in March?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 10, 2026): Vol $212.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will annual inflation increase by 2.3% in March?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 10, 2026): Vol $238.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will annual inflation increase by 2.1% in March?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 10, 2026): Vol $102.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% in March?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 10, 2026): Vol $176.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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11¢

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Will annual inflation increase by ≥2.8% in March?

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Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

March Inflation US - Annual

Markets (9)

Will annual inflation increase by ≥2.8% in March?

Will annual inflation increase by ≥2.8% in March?

Will annual inflation increase by 2.2% in March?

Will annual inflation increase by 2.2% in March?

Will annual inflation increase by 2.4% in March?

Will annual inflation increase by 2.4% in March?

Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% in March?

Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% in March?

Will annual inflation increase by 2.5% in March?

Will annual inflation increase by 2.5% in March?

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will annual inflation increase by ≥2.8% in March?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

March Inflation US - Annual

Will annual inflation increase by ≥2.8% in March?

Will annual inflation increase by ≥2.8% in March?

Will annual inflation increase by 2.2% in March?

Will annual inflation increase by 2.2% in March?

Will annual inflation increase by 2.4% in March?

Will annual inflation increase by 2.4% in March?

Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% in March?

Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% in March?

Will annual inflation increase by 2.5% in March?

Will annual inflation increase by 2.5% in March?

Related News & Context

Discussion

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