Event GroupPOLYMARKETCulture
What will be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?
Total Volume
$23.01K
Events
1
Markets
7
What will be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?
Vol
$23.01K
|
Events
1
|
Markets
7
$23.01K
1
7
$23.01K
1
7
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 Movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, March 3, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #2 Netflix movie in the United States. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for movies. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by March 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Prediction markets currently give "The Addams Family" about a 1 in 3 chance of being the #2 movie on Netflix in the US this week. This means traders collectively see it as possible but not the most likely outcome. With seven different movie options being traded, the market is fairly split, indicating uncertainty about what will secure the runner-up spot. The total amount wagered is modest, suggesting this is a niche topic followed by a smaller group of dedicated trackers.
The odds reflect the unpredictable nature of Netflix's weekly charts. "The Addams Family" is a perennial favorite that often re-enters the Top 10, especially around holidays or when promoted by Netflix. Its current price suggests it has a solid base of viewers but may lack the surge of a major new release. The chart is typically dominated by a mix of recent Netflix original films, licensed classics, and viral hits. For an older licensed film like "The Addams Family" to hit #2, it usually requires a lack of strong competition from new originals or a specific cultural moment driving rewatches.
The decisive event is Netflix's official Top 10 update, scheduled for Tuesday, March 3, 2026, at 3:00 PM ET. This list reflects viewership from the prior Monday through Sunday. Any major new movie releases added to the platform on the Friday or Saturday before the tracking week ends could dramatically shift the rankings. Also, watch for any sudden social media trends or news stories that could cause a specific film to spike in popularity over the weekend, as these late surges are hard for markets to price in advance.
Markets for weekly pop culture outcomes like this are moderately reliable but volatile. Traders use data from prior weeks and knowledge of Netflix's release patterns, but last-minute viewer behavior is hard to predict. The small market size here also means prices can be swayed more easily by a few large bets. For a definitive answer, everyone simply has to wait for Netflix's own data on Tuesday.
The Polymarket contract for the #2 US Netflix movie this week shows a fragmented field with no clear favorite. The leading outcome, "The Addams Family," trades at just 31¢, implying a 31% probability. This low leading percentage indicates high uncertainty. The "Other" category, a catch-all for any film not listed in the specific contracts, holds a significant 25% probability. Combined, the thin $23,000 in total volume across seven movie-specific markets suggests low trader confidence and a market driven more by speculation than strong data.
Netflix's weekly rankings are volatile and driven by new releases and algorithmic promotion. "The Addams Family" likely holds the top spot among named contenders because it is a perennial catalog title with consistent family viewership, especially on weekends. Its 31% probability is not high, reflecting that catalog titles rarely dominate the number two spot without a specific boost. The substantial 25% chance for "Other" is the most telling metric. It directly prices in the high likelihood that an unlisted new release, potentially a Netflix original film that debuted late last week, will capture the position. Historical patterns show Netflix's own promotional engine for new content often creates a top two debut.
The primary catalyst is Netflix's own new content drop from the past Monday through Sunday. A film released on Friday, March 27th, would have had a full weekend to amass views and could easily surge to #2 by the Tuesday, March 3rd, report. The market odds for "The Addams Family" and other named films would collapse if any major new title is identified. Conversely, if the past week saw no significant new movie releases, the odds would shift toward established catalog titles. Traders are essentially betting against Netflix releasing a major new film in the prior week, which is historically a low-probability bet.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on forecasting which film will rank second in Netflix's weekly Top 10 Movies list for the United States. Netflix publishes this list every Tuesday at approximately 3:00 PM Eastern Time on its public-facing website, top10.netflix.com. The list reflects the total number of hours viewed for each title in the U.S. during the prior Monday-through-Sunday measurement week. The specific market resolves based on the movie occupying the #2 position in the update scheduled for Tuesday, March 3, 2026. If this update does not occur by 11:59 PM ET on March 6, 2026, the market resolves to 'Other.' Netflix's Top 10 lists, introduced globally in November 2021, have become a significant public metric for streaming performance, influencing industry perceptions, talent compensation, and audience viewing habits. The competition for the second spot is often intense, featuring a mix of new Netflix original releases, licensed theatrical films, and older catalog titles experiencing a resurgence. Interest in predicting this outcome stems from its value as a real-time indicator of audience preferences and the commercial success of specific films on the world's largest subscription streaming platform. Analysts, journalists, and industry professionals monitor these rankings to gauge the impact of marketing campaigns, star power, and genre popularity.
Netflix began sharing limited viewership data for its original series in 2019, but it was not until February 2021 that the company introduced a more structured public-facing website for its Top 10 lists. The initial format showed the top ten most-watched titles in each country but did not provide specific hourly viewership figures. This changed in November 2021 when Netflix launched a redesigned Top10 website and began reporting hours viewed for all titles, a move prompted by increasing demands for transparency from creators, investors, and the industry. The first publicly reported #2 movie in the U.S. under this new system was "Red Notice" for the week of November 8-14, 2021, which garnered 148.7 million hours viewed globally, though it ranked #1 domestically. Historically, the #2 position has been occupied by a wide variety of films. In 2023, for example, the spot was frequently held by licensed theatrical comedies or action films in their first weeks on the service, while in 2024, Netflix original action thrillers and holiday films cycled through the position. The longevity of a film in the top ranks has decreased over time, reflecting a faster content churn. A film staying at #2 for more than two consecutive weeks has become less common since 2022.
The ranking has tangible financial implications. Performance on the Top 10 list can trigger bonus payments for producers and stars under Netflix's talent compensation models, which often include incentives tied to viewership milestones. For filmmakers and actors, a high ranking validates their commercial appeal and can lead to more lucrative deals for future projects, both within and outside Netflix. The data also influences broader industry decisions. Competitors like Disney+ and Max analyze these rankings to inform their own content acquisition and production strategies. Advertising agencies use the data to understand audience demographics and preferences for brand integration opportunities. For subscribers, the Top 10 list functions as a powerful discovery tool, creating a feedback loop where popularity begets more viewership. This can elevate niche films or reinforce the dominance of mainstream genres, subtly shaping viewing culture.
As of late 2024, Netflix continues to refine its film strategy under new leadership. The company has signaled a shift toward producing fewer but potentially higher-impact original movies, while still relying heavily on licensed content from studios like Sony. The weekly Top 10 list remains a cornerstone of its transparency efforts, though some industry observers call for more granular data. The specific contenders for the March 2026 ranking are unknown, but they will likely emerge from Netflix's Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 release slate, which typically includes awards-season contenders and major genre films.
Netflix counts the total number of hours subscribers spent watching a title globally during a calendar week. They only count a view after a user watches at least two minutes of a film, which is intended to filter out accidental clicks.
Yes. While new releases dominate, older catalog titles can re-enter the Top 10 due to algorithmic promotion, social media trends, or ties to current events. This is less common for the #2 spot, which usually requires a recent, high-volume release.
No. The Top 10 data includes only viewing that occurs on the Netflix service itself. It does not incorporate views from licensed airings on linear TV or other platforms.
Netflix's published methodology states that ties are broken by which title had more total views (not hours), creating a unique viewership metric. If a tie persists, the ranking is determined alphabetically.
The #1 spot is often predictable for a major new release. The #2 spot is more competitive and uncertain, involving a battle between the fading #1 film, a rising new release, or a strong licensed title, making it a more interesting forecasting challenge.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
7 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 31% |
 | Poly | 18% |
 | Poly | 6% |
 | Poly | 5% |
 | Poly | 3% |
 | Poly | 2% |
 | Poly | 1% |
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