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$112.75
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1 market tracked

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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
![]() | Poly | 52% |
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This event is for the CBB game between Oregon State Beavers and San Diego Toreros on January 31 at 6:00 PM ET. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
Prediction markets show this college basketball game is essentially a coin flip. Traders collectively give the Saint Mary's Gaels a 55% chance to win, which is a roughly 11 in 20 probability. The Oregon State Beavers are given a 45% chance. This means the market sees a very slight edge for Saint Mary's, but views the game as highly uncertain. With only a few thousand dollars wagered, this is a niche market, indicating lower trading volume and confidence compared to major national games.
The close odds reflect the specific circumstances of this matchup. Saint Mary's is typically a strong program known for disciplined, slow-paced basketball under coach Randy Bennett. However, their performance can vary early in the conference season. Oregon State, while often less dominant in the Pac-12, is playing at home in this game. Home court advantage in college basketball is a real factor, often worth a few points, which likely helps balance the odds. The timing also matters. This is a late-night game on the West Coast, which can sometimes lead to unpredictable energy levels or shooting performances from both teams.
The key event is the game itself, scheduled for January 20 at 9:00 PM PT (12:00 AM ET on the 21st for Eastern viewers). The only development that could shift predictions before tip-off is an official announcement regarding a key player's injury or availability. If a star player for either team is suddenly ruled out, you would likely see the odds move significantly. Once the game begins, the market will close and resolve based on the final score.
For regular-season college basketball games, prediction markets are generally quite accurate, often outperforming expert polls. However, this particular market has a low volume of bets. Lower volume can sometimes make prices more sensitive to small bits of news or less reflective of deep collective insight. The "coin flip" probability itself is a reliable indicator that informed traders see no clear favorite. The main limitation here is the small market size, not the forecasting method. For high-stakes tournament games with more money wagered, the forecasts tend to be even sharper.
Prediction markets assign Oregon State a 45% chance to defeat Saint Mary's. This price indicates the market views the Beavers as clear underdogs, with the Gaels holding an implied 55% probability of victory. The market has thin liquidity, with only $3,000 in total volume, which can make prices more volatile and less reliable as a consensus forecast.
The pricing directly reflects Saint Mary's significant advantages. The Gaels are a ranked team with a strong defensive identity and an efficient offense led by guard Aidan Mahaney. They entered this contest with a superior record and a proven system under coach Randy Bennett. Oregon State, while improved, has struggled for consistency in Pac-12 play and lacks a marquee win this season. The market is pricing in Saint Mary's home-court advantage and their overall higher team quality, which analytics models consistently favored ahead of tip-off.
In a live game market, odds shift with in-game events. A key injury, foul trouble for a star like Mahaney, or a significant scoring run by Oregon State would have moved the remaining contract price. For future matchups, the odds would depend on team performance in intervening games, changes in health, and venue. A hypothetical neutral-site game would likely see Saint Mary's price decrease from the 55% implied here, while a game in Corvallis would narrow the spread considerably.
This market traded exclusively on Polymarket. The lack of a comparable market on Kalshi or other platforms eliminates arbitrage opportunities and a direct consensus check. The thin volume on Polymarket suggests this price was set by a limited pool of traders, potentially increasing the influence of a single large bet compared to a high-liquidity event.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
$112.75
1
1
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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